📉 警告1：為什麼以太坊23%的反彈可能是陷阱，掩蓋更深層的風險

Ethereum (ETH) has staged a notable 23% recovery since hitting a local bottom of $1,740 on February 6, 2026. While the bounce has provided temporary relief, a deep dive into on-chain data and technical structures suggests that the primary downtrend remains intact. A bearish “pole and flag” pattern is currently forming on the 12-hour chart, and the recent price surge lacks the high-volume support typically seen in a sustainable reversal. With long-term holders increasing their sell-side activity by 82% in just four days, the market faces a growing risk of a secondary leg down, with technical projections pointing as low as the $1,000 psychological floor.

The Bear Flag Trap: Rebound Lacks Structural Support

The recent price increase appears more like a “relief rally” inside a larger bearish trend rather than a genuine shift in market direction.

• Hidden Bearish Divergence: While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher, the price has failed to break the cycle of lower highs. This mismatch indicates that sellers are still exerting pressure, using the 23% bounce to exit positions.
• On-Balance Volume (OBV): Unlike the price, OBV remains flat, suggesting that the “smart money” is not following this retail-driven bounce. If the current ascending trendline in volume breaks, the flag structure could fail, triggering a sharp move lower.

On-Chain Exodus: Long-Term Holders Ramp Up Selling

Data tracking institutional and long-term investor behavior shows a significant lack of conviction at current price levels.

• HODLer Net Position Change: Net outflows from addresses holding ETH for over 155 days spiked from -10,681 ETH to -19,399 ETH between February 4 and 8. This 82% increase in selling by “strong hands” suggests they view the current bounce as a secondary exit opportunity.
• The NUPL Reset: Short-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) recovered by 35% too quickly, mirroring a failed bottom from March 2025. Historical data shows that a durable bottom usually requires a deeper “NUPL flush” (near -0.80) to exhaust all remaining sell-side pressure.

The Path to $1,000: Critical Support Floors

Ethereum is currently trading below major resistance, leaving it vulnerable to a 50% technical breakdown if the bear flag fully resolves.

• Key Support Zones: * $1,990: The immediate short-term support level. A close below this would signal the bounce is failing.
  • $1,750: A critical Fibonacci level that must hold to prevent a larger slide.
  • $1,510: A major retracement zone that aligns with the deep-value bottoms seen in April 2025.
• The Bear Projection: If the bearish flag structure breaks to the downside, the measured move points toward $1,000. To invalidate this dire scenario, ETH must reclaim and hold $2,780 with conviction.

Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of a potential Ethereum price crash to $1,000 and the 82% spike in long-term holder selling are based on technical analysis and on-chain data as of February 9, 2026. Bear flags and other technical patterns are probabilistic and do not guarantee future price performance. Ethereum is a high-risk asset subject to extreme volatility; sudden shifts in institutional ETF flows or global macro sentiment can override existing technical structures. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market.

Do you think the 23% bounce is the “real deal,” or are you waiting for the $1,500 “April 2025” reset?