Crypto ETF funds see $167 million inflow in a single day, is "spot demand" reshaping the recovery dominance?

Looking back at the early 2026 crypto market, many investors still have lingering fears. When Bitcoin hovered around $67,000, retracing nearly 46% from its all-time high, market sentiment plunged into extreme panic. However, a liquidity transformation initiated by the spot market is quietly underway.

As of February 11, the latest data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net inflow of $166.56 million yesterday, marking a positive signal observed for several consecutive days. Unlike previous rebounds driven purely by speculative expectations, the underlying logic of this market recovery has undergone a fundamental shift: funds are moving from simple “financial product arbitrage” toward “spot asset anchoring.” This structural buying driven by spot demand may be more sustainable than any narrative.

New Consensus Amid Data Divergence: ETFs Are No Longer “Counterparties”

For a long time, there has been a misconception in the crypto market: that inflows and outflows of spot ETFs directly equate to market buy or sell pressure. But on-chain data from early February tells a completely different story.

Just last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net outflow of over $331 million, which theoretically signals extreme pessimism. However, a rare divergence occurred: on February 6, on-chain addresses accumulated 66,940 BTC (about $4.7 billion), setting the largest single-day inflow record in this cycle.

This data convincingly reveals a truth: when ETF short-term speculators capitulate due to emotional swings, the real “whales” and long-term holders are actively accumulating in the spot market. Strategy, a listed company, continued to buy at an average price of $78,815, and Binance SAFU fund also added 4,225 BTC in one go. This mirror image of “ETF selling pressure and on-chain accumulation” forms the most solid foundation for market recovery—the actual tightening of circulating supply.

February 11 Key Turning Point: From “Trial and Error” to “Confirmation”

By mid-February, the sentiment shifted completely. Yesterday (February 10), the net inflow of $166.56 million into the US spot Bitcoin ETF was not just a rebound in numbers but a transfer of market dominance.

In this wave of capital, the leading force was no longer just BlackRock’s IBIT but a diversified group including ARKB (net inflow of $85.3 million) and Fidelity’s FBTC (net inflow of $56.9 million). This indicates that institutional funds no longer see ETFs merely as “shadow stocks” but as direct channels to access spot holdings.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum ecosystem is sending the same signal. As of press time, Gate.io shows ETH at around $1,950, with some volatility within 24 hours, but US spot Ethereum ETFs have experienced consecutive days of net inflows, with yesterday’s net inflow reaching $13.8 million. This marks a shift of capital from Bitcoin-centric activity toward valuation confirmation of high-quality Layer 1 assets.

Why Is “Spot Demand” More Critical Than “ETF Approvals”?

Many users tend to equate ETF capital flows simply with “positive” or “negative” signals. But in Gate’s view, while the direction of capital flow is important, the asset form that funds are anchored to is the core determinant of the nature of the rebound.

1. Liquidity “Black Hole” on the Supply Side

Currently, Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges have fallen to multi-year lows. When ETF inflows (yesterday’s net inflow of 417 BTC) switch from outflows to inflows, and whales continue to accumulate, a scissors gap forms between limited spot supply and surging fiat demand. This spot-tightness-driven price discovery is far more sustainable than artificial price inflation driven by leverage.

2. From “Beta Returns” to “Alpha Assets”

Between 2024 and early 2025, some investors bought ETFs to capture Bitcoin’s beta volatility relative to traditional stock indices. But by February 2026, with Ethereum’s DeFi total value locked still solid at $111 billion and daily transaction counts reaching 20.6 million, the market is beginning to realize that the earning capacity and network effects of the underlying spot assets are the real moat.

Recovery Path Breakdown: Which Stage Is the Market In?

Based on Gate’s on-chain data tracking, we divide this spot-led recovery into three phases. Currently, we are in the early stage of Phase 2:

• Phase 1 (completed): Whales accumulating. Retail panic selling ETF shares during price declines, while large addresses silently absorb supply. Key event: on February 6, 66,940 BTC accumulated in addresses.
• Phase 2 (ongoing): ETF capital reversal confirmation. Institutions re-enter through regulated products, not for high-frequency arbitrage, but to replenish spot inventories. Key event: February 10, BTC ETF net inflow of $167 million, ETH ETF continuous net inflows.
• Phase 3 (upcoming): FOMO transmission. Rising spot prices further deplete exchange balances, triggering short covering and new FOMO sentiment resonance.

Summary

The cyclical nature of the crypto market has never disappeared, but each recovery engine is fundamentally different. The ETF data on February 11, 2026, may seem like just a $167 million on-paper movement, but behind it are a week of whale accumulation, nearly $4.7 billion on-chain liquidations, and tens of thousands of investors shifting from “speculative arbitrage” to “holding spot.”

Truly smart liquidity is concentrating in the spot market. For ordinary investors, rather than obsessing over daily ETF outflows and inflows, it’s more important to see the bigger picture: when the biggest players start “only entering and not exiting” the spot market, the market recovery tilt has already shifted.