Spot gold rises above the $5100 per ounce level

Spot gold has risen above the $5,100 per ounce level for the first time since January 30, gaining 1.5% intraday.

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Gold temporarily stabilizes around the $5,000 mark: Hold gold for festivals or lock in profits?

International gold prices once again broke through a key resistance level, returning to the $5,000 per ounce threshold.

As of February 11, London gold was quoted at $5,064 per ounce, with a intraday high of $5,069; London silver surged 5% today, trading at $84.7 per ounce.

However, the breakout did not ignite market enthusiasm for chasing gains. Traders told reporters that international gold prices are now hovering around the $5,000 critical level, with clear market polarization: long-term funds continue to flow in, central banks in various countries have been steadily increasing their gold reserves, and institutions are generally optimistic about the year’s trend; but short-term speculative funds are cautious, traders have not aggressively built long positions due to the breakout, and both bulls and bears are hesitant to act, leading to a market with a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

On the macro front, U.S. non-farm payroll data is about to be released, becoming a key variable in suppressing market risk appetite. The report has been delayed due to the government shutdown and includes annual benchmark revisions, which could significantly downwardly revise previously published employment figures. For domestic investors, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching; international markets continue normal trading during China’s market closure, with exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical risks adding complexity to the decision to hold positions through the holiday or reduce and wait.

Gold Hovering at the $5,000 Level

After experiencing sharp fluctuations last week, international gold prices have been consolidating around the $5,000 level this week.

Currently, it is a window for major U.S. economic data releases, with non-farm payrolls and CPI figures to be announced sequentially. The precious metals market remains cautious, mainly fluctuating slightly.

“December retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated, significantly below economists’ previous forecast of 0.4% growth,” said Zhengxin Futures. Weak labor market conditions are cited as the reason for slowing consumption growth. Although high-end consumer spending remains active, lower-income groups are more cautious.

Regarding non-farm payrolls, Zhengxin Futures noted that the market has fully anticipated a decline in employment data. Focus will be on the annual benchmark revision; if employment growth is sharply downward revised, it could systematically change market perceptions of the U.S. labor market. With inflation expectations easing, the Federal Reserve may also accelerate rate cuts.

Jiyu, head of fixed income and multi-asset market strategies at UnionBank Funds, believes that the pace and intensity of Fed rate cuts may be delayed. He analyzed that the unexpectedly strong January ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates that the Fed will revise its economic growth outlook from “moderate” to “robust.” Looking back to January 2026, confidence in U.S. assets deepened, with Treasury yields rising—10-year yields once hit 4.3%. Based on this, he judges that U.S. economic resilience remains strong.

Since February, gold prices have plummeted about 13% over just two trading days due to speculative buying overheating. Although they have recovered about half of the decline, market volatility has increased significantly. Industry insiders believe that much of the speculative positions have now been cleared, reducing the risk of sharp short-term fluctuations and laying the groundwork for the next rally.

UBS Wealth Management’s CIO office recently reported that concerns over the Fed’s independence, geopolitical tensions, and policy instability may continue to boost demand for physical gold assets, supporting gold’s future trend.

Based on stronger-than-expected investment demand, UBS has raised its gold target price for the first three quarters of this year to $6,200 per ounce. The bank emphasizes that this upward revision is mainly driven by investment demand rather than central bank purchases. UBS forecasts a bullish scenario target of $7,200 per ounce and continues to hold an “attractive” view on gold, maintaining a bullish stance in global asset allocation.

Hold Gold for Festivals or Lock in Profits?

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, domestic precious metals markets will be closed for nine days (February 14–23), while international markets continue normal trading. Investors face the dilemma of “holding gold through the holiday” or “locking in profits.”

As of February 11 close, Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.56% to 1130.4 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver main contract increased 1.88% to 20,944 yuan/kilogram. Bai Suna, chief precious metals analyst at Guomao Futures, said that market sentiment before the holiday may be cautious, and precious metal prices are expected to gradually enter a range-bound oscillation.

On the risk side, “disconnection risks between domestic and overseas markets are prominent during the holiday. If U.S. non-farm payrolls exceed expectations or geopolitical situations suddenly worsen, opening after the holiday could see gap moves, and stop-loss orders set by investors may become ineffective. Additionally, many institutions have reduced positions before the holiday to lock in profits, leading to decreased trading volume and increased liquidity risk,” warned a trader.

In response, domestic exchanges have raised margin requirements for gold and silver. According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s announcement on 2026 holiday arrangements, the price limit for listed gold futures contracts has been adjusted to 20%, with margin for carry positions at 21% and for general positions at 22%. Silver futures’ price limit is adjusted to 25%, with carry margin at 26% and general margin at 27%.

The trader further advised that for leveraged trading such as gold futures, professional institutions generally recommend closing positions before the holiday to avoid volatility risks. For physical gold and long-term investors, maintaining core holdings is advisable, but positions should be strictly controlled. Using the current rebound as an opportunity, moderate profit-taking is recommended, waiting for clearer buying opportunities after the holiday.

In the medium to long term, central bank gold purchases remain strong. According to the World Gold Council, in 2025, global central banks’ gold demand remained high, with official institutions adding 863 tons. Although annual demand did not surpass the previous three years’ average of over 1,000 tons, central bank buying still played a significant role in supporting overall demand in 2025.

China’s central bank has also been increasing gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. As of the end of January 2026, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange’s latest data shows China’s official gold reserves at 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from December 2025.

Bai Suna noted that with the Fed still possible to cut rates this year, ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, and the continued push for de-dollarization driven by massive U.S. debt, the demand for allocation by central banks, institutions, and residents is likely to persist. Gold prices could continue to rise, and after stabilizing, present good medium- to long-term allocation opportunities.

Jia Shuchang, head of Asia-Pacific research and China industry development at the World Gold Council (excluding India), previously told Yicai that, when considering gold as part of a global asset portfolio, its gains remain relatively moderate. Compared to equities, the total holdings of gold ETFs plus net futures long positions account for less than 1.5% of global stock market value; relative to the MSCI global stock index, gold’s valuation does not show significant deviation. In terms of global allocation, current holdings of gold ETFs, futures, and spot gold combined still represent a relatively low proportion of total global stocks and bonds.