Myanmar earthquake triggers tin market fluctuations, supply concerns intensify market sentiment

At 11:33 PM on the 3rd, a shallow earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0 occurred approximately 20 kilometers northwest of Xidu Daiye Town in Magway Province, western Myanmar (epicenter at a depth of 10 kilometers), followed by a 5.2 magnitude aftershock. The epicenter is located at 20.50°N, 93.94°E. As of now, there are no official reports indicating that the earthquake has directly affected tin mining or logistics. However, given Myanmar’s core position in the global tin supply chain, the news quickly spread to the market, causing sharp fluctuations in tin prices.

From the fundamental supply and demand perspective, the global tin market is currently in a tight balance, which provides a basis for price volatility triggered by the earthquake. Additionally, although global visible tin inventories are high, the willingness of smelting companies to deliver stocks has increased under high inventory levels, exerting some downward pressure on tin prices. The market is presenting a multi-faceted game of “tight supply, demand divergence, and inventory suppression.”

In summary, the 6.0 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar is a direct catalyst for a short-term price surge in tin, but fundamentally it reflects the current global tin market’s tight balance, where supply-side uncertainties are amplified by market sentiment. In the short term, close attention should be paid to official Myanmar reports and the progress of tin mine damage and resumption in Wa State to prevent panic buying and chasing high prices. In the medium to long term, focus should be on the recovery of global tin mine supply and the implementation of demand in emerging fields to seize investment opportunities brought by changes in the supply and demand landscape. (Shanghai Metal Market)