📉 SAYLOR’S ETERNAL STANCE: MSTR REBOUNDS 20% AS BULLISH DIVERGENCE CHALLENGES THE BITCOIN BEAR MARKET

Strategy (MSTR) is attempting to break free from its persistent bear market, staging a notable 20% rebound as of February 11, 2026. While the stock remains heavily correlated with Bitcoin’s ongoing volatility, technical indicators are beginning to signal a shift in capital flow. A bullish divergence in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) suggests selective accumulation is occurring beneath the surface, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is mirroring a setup from May 2022 that previously sparked a 123% recovery. Despite the pressure of Bitcoin’s 38% slide since January, founder Michael Saylor remains unphased, reiterating a permanent commitment to the treasury strategy: “We will not be selling. Instead, I believe we will be buying Bitcoin every quarter forever.”

The 20% Rebound: Technical Signals of Accumulation

Strategy’s stock has shown early signs of life following a period of extreme oversold conditions.

• Bullish CMF Divergence: About a week ago, the CMF began trending higher while the stock price recorded a lower low. This divergence is a classic signal of institutional-style accumulation, suggesting that “big money” is moving into MSTR even as the market remains fearful.
• The RSI Setup: The RSI has recently dipped below 30.0, an oversold level historically associated with technical rebounds. Analysts are closely watching for a repeat of the 2022 cycle, where a similar RSI reading preceded a massive triple-digit rally.

The Correlation Trap: MSTR as a Bitcoin-Linked Instrument

Unlike previous cycles where Strategy occasionally moved independently of the crypto market, the current correlation between MSTR and Bitcoin is at near-historic highs.

• Identity Shift: Market participants now treat Strategy almost exclusively as a Bitcoin-linked vehicle rather than a standalone software company. Since November 2025, the stock has functioned as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin, magnifying both the downside and the upside of the digital asset’s price swings.
• Macro Dependence: Because of this tight alignment, a sustained MSTR recovery is unlikely without a stabilization of the broader Bitcoin market. Strategy’s outlook is now firmly tied to the success of its perpetual accumulation policy.

Strategic Targets: Reclaiming the $157 Barrier

MSTR is currently trading near $133, hovering around a critical Fibonacci inflection point that will dictate the next major move.

• Immediate Resistance: To improve its broader technical structure, MSTR must first reclaim the $157 level. Reclaiming this zone would offset recent losses and attract renewed investor interest.
• The Downside Floor: If Bitcoin’s weakness persists, MSTR remains vulnerable. A drop below the $122 support could expose the February low of $104, with the next major structural support sitting far below at $83.

Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Strategy (MSTR) price targets and the reported 20% rebound are based on technical analysis and market data as of February 11, 2026. Michael Saylor’s statement regarding “buying Bitcoin forever” is a corporate treasury policy and does not guarantee the future performance of MSTR or Bitcoin. Strategy stock is highly correlated with Bitcoin, which is an extremely volatile asset; capital invested in MSTR is subject to total loss if Bitcoin’s value crashes or if the company’s leveraged treasury strategy fails. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Bitcoin-linked equities.

Do you believe Michael Saylor’s “buy forever” strategy will lead to another 123% rally, or is the Bitcoin correlation a ticking time bomb for MSTR?