First Capital Futures: Cost-driven weakening, soybean meal surges then pulls back

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-12T13:29:04+00:00

Today, soybean meal prices surged and then retreated, with insufficient market momentum and continuous reduction of positions. U.S. soybeans also showed a slight increase, as the market remains cautious ahead of the supply and demand report. Meanwhile, Brazilian quotes have been lowered, harvesting has accelerated, and domestic soybean meal supply is ample. Post-holiday storage liquidation expectations have increased, putting short-term pressure on soybean meal prices.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-12 13:29:04

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Today, soybean meal prices surged then retreated, with the main soybean meal futures contract opening higher during Friday night trading but then continuously reducing positions and falling back. Near the close, it turned to a slight decline, indicating insufficient upward momentum. U.S. soybeans similarly surged then retreated, with only a slight increase. The continuous rally in the market triggered commercial selling, and ahead of the February supply and demand report, market sentiment remained cautious. On Friday, Brazil’s premium/discount quotes continued to slightly decline, exerting a mild downward pressure on costs. Brazil’s harvest accelerated, and weather forecasts show that rainfall in Argentina will significantly improve over the next two weeks. The market is also paying attention to the U.S. Agricultural Outlook Forum on the 19th of this month, where market expectations that soybean prices above 1100 cents could stimulate a substantial increase in U.S. soybean planting, thereby once again limiting soybean price gains. Domestically, before the holiday, the supply of spot soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, with market expectations of post-holiday release of reserves, and downstream livestock profits may deteriorate again after the holiday. Overall, the cost disturbance caused by U.S. soybean fluctuations is limited, and the domestic fundamentals are weakening. Soybean meal prices have limited upward momentum before the holiday, with short-term focus on the USDA monthly report tomorrow night. (Chuangchuang Futures)

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