January non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, delaying rate cut expectations. The U.S. K-shaped recovery is leaning towards the upper end. Thailand's election results benefit consumption, infrastructure, and banking—0212 Macro Summary

In January, U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, with 172,000 new jobs added in the private sector. Amid rising labor force participation, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Given the reduced downside risks to the employment market and overall moderate inflation, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged before the June meeting.

Recently, under the K-shaped divergence, the lower end is moving upward toward the higher end. High-net-worth groups are expanding through stable economic and asset price expectations, helping new borrowing groups. Housing demand is thus warming up, driving the U.S. economy from “divergence” toward “re-inflation.”

In Thailand’s national elections, the victory of the Pride Thai Party is seen as the most favorable outcome for the market. Its policies focus on maintaining the current economic structure and promoting growth through stable fiscal expansion. With subsequent policy support, consumption, infrastructure, and the banking sector may benefit.