Macroeconomics

The recent decline in the cryptocurrency market is viewed as a "traditional financial event," caused by rising Japanese yen interest rates and increased borrowing costs leading traders to liquidate positions. Despite increased market volatility and active Bitcoin ETF trading, industry insiders believe that institutions have not fully withdrawn. It is expected that by 2026, traditional finance and crypto infrastructure will become further integrated.

Bitcoin has fallen for three consecutive days after reaching $70,000, and market panic sentiment has intensified. Although spot trading volume has decreased, stable ETF capital inflows have offset selling pressure. On-chain data indicates that this correction is mild, and short-term prices are still expected to be highly volatile. The market is paying attention to US economic data that could influence risk asset sentiment.

Recently, Bitcoin's price briefly dropped below $75,000 due to weekend sell-offs, triggering a sharp change in market sentiment. Pessimistic bets on its future trend have surged on the prediction platform Polymarket. Analysts believe that the current market is influenced by technical factors and macro liquidity, while Bitcoin's core value is being overlooked. Institutional forecasts are divided, but investors should focus on tangible factors such as holding costs, macro data, and on-chain activity, and maintain their own investment logic.

February 11 News, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that if the United States cannot effectively control the rising debt interest expenses, global markets' confidence in the dollar could be severely impacted. He bluntly stated that if the fiscal situation continues to worsen, the dollar could eventually become "a credit symbol like Monopoly game money," a statement that quickly sparked heated discussions in financial markets. According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the U.S. federal debt has approached $38 trillion, and about 20% of the government’s annual budget is used to pay interest. As interest rates remain high, borrowing costs continue to rise, and debt interest is rapidly squeezing the fiscal space originally allocated for infrastructure, education, healthcare, and defense. Fink pointed out that if this trend gets out of control, it will weaken the U.S. fiscal flexibility and undermine investors’ long-term confidence in the stability of the dollar.

February 11 News, due to the market's high attention to the upcoming release of the U.S. January non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, Bitcoin prices have sharply retreated to around $66,000 in the past 24 hours. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are moving in sync, with Wall Street generally believing that employment may rebound, which would weaken the Federal Reserve's possibility of cutting interest rates in June, thereby putting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the January employment report today. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by about 70,000, higher than December's 50,000, indicating that the labor market, while slowing, remains resilient. The forecast range varies from a decrease of 10,000 jobs to an increase of 135,000, with the unemployment rate possibly remaining at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow by 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual growth rate slowing to 3.6%.

On February 11, Bitcoin prices slightly retreated but remained around $66,000, with the market holding its breath as it awaits guidance from several key macroeconomic data points, including the latest U.S. employment report, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the potential risk of a government shutdown. Ethereum also came under pressure, with prices still below $2,000, reflecting a generally weak risk appetite in the crypto market. The current total market capitalization of digital assets is approximately $2.29 trillion, down about 2.5% over the past 24 hours. In the United States, the delayed January employment report will disclose non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage inflation, which are considered important indicators for assessing the economic start in 2026. Previously, in December, about 50,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Economists expect January's new job additions to rebound to 55,000, with the unemployment rate likely remaining unchanged. Tariff policies, immigration restrictions, and the accelerated replacement of traditional jobs by artificial intelligence are seen as the main variables disrupting the labor market.

February 11 News, privacy cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC) continues to weaken amid rising market risk aversion, with a decline of over 25% this month. In January, ZEC plummeted more than 41%, continuing its downward trend since 2026. As of press time, ZEC is priced at approximately $227.22, down another 4.29% in the past 24 hours. Looking back at its trend, ZEC once surged over 440% in October 2025 against the trend, becoming one of the few strong assets at that time. Despite volatile fluctuations in November and December, it ultimately closed slightly higher. However, after entering 2026, global risk assets came under pressure, coupled with rumors of Electric Coin Company (ECC) parting ways with Bootstrap, which significantly cooled market sentiment and led to continuous selling pressure on ZEC.

QCP Capital analyzes Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounds, market sentiment is optimistic, and a bottom may be forming. Capital inflows are picking up, with BTC ETF recording a net inflow of .45 billion, and ETH ETF also turning into a net inflow. Macro factors have improved, but the Fear and Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone, indicating that market sentiment is fragile.

Macro Pressure: China’s Treasury reductions and de-dollarization add stress to the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin. Technical Signals: BTC/XAU ratio breaks key support, suggesting Bitcoin may be far from a bottom. Market Sentiment: Minimal dip-buying and cautious positioning indicate potential

According to BlockBeats news, the U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for January will be announced on the evening of February 11. Thirty-two institutions' forecasts for the unemployment rate all range between 4.3% and 4.5%. The non-farm payroll forecast ranges from a decrease of 10,000 to an increase of 135,000, indicating differing views in the market regarding the economic outlook.

Taiwan stocks closed for the Lunar New Year on February 11, entering the Year of the Horse, while global capital markets continue to operate. Key events during the Lunar New Year include US GDP and global PMI, with NVIDIA's earnings report on February 26 being the biggest focus. The five major market trends include emerging markets outperforming US stocks, small and mid-cap stocks leading blue chips, AI hardware outperforming software, and more. Risk tracking includes four assets: IGV, MOVE, silver, and Bitcoin.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warns that rising US debt interest payments could undermine confidence in the dollar, potentially making it resemble "monopoly money." As debt servicing consumes a large portion of the federal budget, he calls for urgent fiscal discipline to maintain global trust in the currency.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Chair Beth Hammack stated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may pause further rate cuts as inflation remains too high. She warned that inflation this year could stay around 3% and that interest rates will not be adjusted again until the 2% target is reached. Crypto traders have lowered their expectations for rate cuts, with Polymarket data showing a decrease from 3 expected cuts to 2.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jintao, overnight U.S. retail sales data was weak, and the US dollar index DXY weakened, leading to increased market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya stated that U.S. consumer spending may indeed be weakening, although large-scale AI investments will still be a significant support for economic growth, but may not create more jobs. She pointed out that if this is true, the U.S. economy will exhibit a dual-speed growth pattern, which will require policy support from the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed January non-farm payroll data later on Wednesday evening. Investors expect an increase of 70,000 jobs in January, following a gain of 50,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, and the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings is forecasted to slow from 3.8% to 3.6%. TD Securities analysts are more cautious, predicting only a 45,000 increase in employment for January.

Due to a temporary suspension by some government departments, the U.S. January non-farm employment report has been postponed to this Wednesday. Several employment data points show signs of weakness, raising concerns about a slowdown in employment. White House officials have adjusted market expectations, emphasizing that current employment growth can be seen as a stable level, and the market should pay attention to the impact of benchmark revisions.

Bitcoin remains range-bound around $69,000, with ETF inflows of $516 million, but still not fully offsetting the $2.2 billion outflow. Deribit put/call ratio surged to 3.1 before falling back to 1.7. Silver plummeted 45%, triggering a chain liquidation effect. Bitcoin is stuck in a downtrend and needs to break above $72,000. Wednesday's non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 70,000, with market sentiment remaining cautious.

U.S. stocks showed mixed performance on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both falling due to weak retail data and AI competition. December retail sales were flat, reflecting a slowdown in consumer spending, which impacted traditional retail stocks. The crypto market remained subdued, with Bitcoin retreating to 68K, and the Fear Index indicating extreme fear. Market focus has shifted to upcoming employment and inflation data releases.

The U.S. stock market strengthened as the small business optimism index declined and retail sales remained weak, with rate cut expectations rising to 60 basis points. Concerns related to AI affected financial stocks, and investors bought on dips. Bitcoin fell below $70,000, and the outlook for tech stocks is cautious ahead of the upcoming employment data release.

Bitcoin, NASDAQ, and Silver hit simultaneous lows on the same 5-minute candle at 11:15 am Asia time. The synchronized selloff resulted from forced multi-asset deleveraging, not crypto-specific catalysts. Correlations surged temporarily during liquidation,