At the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin had a strong start to the new year, sparking endless speculation. It once surged close to $98,000, making $100,000 seem just a matter of time. Unexpectedly, a "failed" Europe-US trade war caused Bitcoin's price to plummet sharply below $90,000, reaffirming the true nature of the Bitcoin bear market. On January 20, Bitcoin traded at $93,054.98, above the 20-day moving average of $92,378.26, initially confirming a bullish signal. The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates that Bitcoin's trading range is between $87,457.49 (lower support) and $97,299.03 (upper resistance). Currently, the price is in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, showing downward momentum. Key resistance levels include $93,000 and $91,000, while support is concentrated around $87,000. If Bitcoin holds above $87,000, the short-term rebound structure remains valid.

Although Bitcoin reached a recent high in January, institutional investor participation remains cautious. On-chain data shows that institutional demand remains prudent, with treasury funds stabilizing near the zero line, and activity mainly consisting of sporadic trades. The derivatives market is trading lightly, with shrinking futures volume and limited leverage use, creating a low-liquidity environment. This restrained attitude reflects institutional investors' risk assessment: when the price approaches the $98,000 region, recent buyers form active "break-even" selling pressure near their cost basis.