Gold prices are expected to reach $8,900 by 2030, according to bullish analysis by Incrementum.

The annual report “In Gold We Trust” published by Incrementum points out the possibility that the gold market could reach $8,900 by the end of 2030. The report analyzes that the current gold prices are not just a short-term rise but are driven by a major structural change—the reorganization of the global financial order.

Reasons for the Change in Gold Prices: From Margins to Main Stage

Why is gold, long considered an outdated asset, attracting investor attention now? The reason lies in the dramatic changes in the world’s political and economic order.

Based on Dow Theory, there are three stages of market maturity: the initial accumulation phase, the phase where general investors participate, and finally, the mania phase. The current gold market is believed to be in the second stage. During this phase, media reports become increasingly optimistic, speculative trading intensifies, and new investment products are continuously introduced.

Over the past five years, gold prices have risen by 92%. Meanwhile, the real purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by 50%. Compared to the long-term forecast of gold prices presented in 2020 (“The Decade of Gold”), the current rise is progressing at a pace far exceeding initial expectations. In 2024, gold has already hit 43 new highs, and in the first four months of 2025, it has reached 22 new records, demonstrating the market’s strength.

Gold Price Forecast at the End of 2030: Considering Multiple Scenarios

Incrementum’s forecast for the gold price at the end of 2030 is heavily influenced by global inflation trends.

The baseline scenario assumes that the gold price will be around $4,800 by the end of 2030, with a mid-term target of $2,942 by the end of 2025 (already surpassed). In an inflationary scenario, it is suggested that the price could reach $8,900 by the end of 2030 and $4,080 by the end of 2025.

Currently, gold prices are maintaining levels above the mid-term target of the baseline scenario. Depending on inflation trends over the next five years until 2030, there is a high likelihood that prices will fall somewhere between the two scenarios. In the short term, there are risks of correction, but the report warns of a possible decline to around $2,800, viewing this as part of the stabilization process of a bullish market.

Central Banks and the Shift in Global Order Supporting Gold Prices

The main factor supporting the bullish trend in gold prices is the large-scale gold purchases by central banks. Since 2009, central banks have consistently bought more gold than they sold, and this trend has accelerated rapidly since the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in February 2022.

Particularly notable is that global central banks have added over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), as of February 2025, the world’s gold reserves have reached 36,252 tons, accounting for 22% of total foreign exchange reserves—the highest level since 1997.

It is important to note that growth in Asia and the Middle East is driving central bank gold purchases. In 2024, Poland became the largest purchaser, and China is expected to continue buying about 40 tons of gold per month, amounting to nearly 500 tons annually.

Geopolitical changes are also significant. As suggested in Zoltan Pozsar’s paper “Bretton Woods III,” the world is transitioning toward a new monetary order backed by gold. Gold is a neutral asset, not belonging to any country, and has no counterparty risk. A survey indicates that in 2024, the daily trading volume of gold averages $229 billion, making it more liquid than government bonds.

New Investment Strategies: Redefining the 60/40 Portfolio

Incrementum proposes a new type of portfolio that revises the traditional “60% stocks, 40% bonds” allocation.

The new allocation includes 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% gold (safe assets), 10% performance gold (silver, mining stocks, etc.), 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin. This shift reflects the loss of confidence in traditional safe assets, especially government bonds.

A key point is that gold and performance gold (silver and mining stocks) are distinguished. The former is a defensive, stable asset, while the latter has aggressive growth potential. Looking at markets in the 1970s and 2000s, silver and mining stocks have delivered significantly higher returns than gold, and a rebound in these assets is considered likely in the coming years.

Combining Bitcoin: The Role of Digital Gold

The report highlights Bitcoin as a digital asset with a different role from gold.

Currently, the market value of gold mined worldwide is about $23 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market value is approximately $1.9 trillion. The report suggests that Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market cap by 2030, which would imply a price of about $900,000 per BTC.

Regarding the strategy of combining gold and Bitcoin, the report advocates the principle of “Gold for stability, Bitcoin for convexity (returns leveraging volatility).” The presence of competitors is not necessarily disadvantageous; it could actually enhance risk-adjusted returns.

Short-term Risks and Long-term Outlook

The upward trend in gold prices toward 2030 is expected to continue, but several short-term risks exist.

First, there is a risk that central bank demand could unexpectedly decrease from the current quarterly average of 250 tons. Second, geopolitical premiums might decline (e.g., end of the Ukraine war, easing of Middle East tensions, early resolution of US-China trade conflicts). Additionally, if the US economy remains stronger than expected, the Federal Reserve might tighten monetary policy.

Speculative positions could also be reduced rapidly, and technical or emotional risks should not be ignored. Gold prices could temporarily stagnate or adjust to around $2,800. However, this is not seen as negating the long-term upward trend but as part of the market stabilization process.

Conclusion: Gold Prices as an Entry Point into a New Era

In summary, the analysis suggests that gold is still in the early stages of a bullish market, with ample room for growth toward 2030. Gold is evolving from a defensive asset in portfolios to a strategic asset in the reorganization of the global financial order.

Multiple factors reinforce each other: first, the inevitable reorganization of the global financial and monetary system; second, government and central bank inflation-oriented policies; third, capital outflows from traditional US assets like the dollar, US stocks, and US bonds; and fourth, increasing affinity for gold in Asia and the Middle East.

Whether gold will reach $8,900 in 2030 depends heavily on future inflation trends and central bank policies. However, it is certain that the current bullish trend in gold is supported not merely by speculative enthusiasm but by fundamental changes in the global political and economic landscape. As confidence in existing currency systems wanes, it is quite plausible that gold will regain its status as a supranational settlement asset and a hedge against state power.