Today's Bitcoin Market: Standing at the Turning Point from Crash to Rebound

The current market after the Bitcoin crash is in a state where extreme volatility and opportunities coexist. Today, BTC is trading around $89,450, and after the tumultuous weeks, market participants are divided in their opinions on the future direction. Similar to the sharp decline after gold reached a record high near $4,380, Bitcoin is also searching for its next big move amid multiple macroeconomic factors and psychological pressures.

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment Clash

Bitcoin’s current major resistance level is approximately $111,700, with support at $107,000. Breaking significantly above $111,000 could trigger short covering and further accelerate upward momentum. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and China are weighing on investor confidence, and short-term risks remain high.

The split in market sentiment is vividly reflected in the numbers. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.23 billion last week, the second-highest level ever. This outflow suggests that investor sentiment is turning bearish. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to a “panic” level of 29, and the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached its lowest since April. Many analysts point out that this situation could present a contrarian trading opportunity, but at the same time, further downside risk cannot be ruled out.

Institutional and Whale Positioning Strategies

The positioning of large investors is crucial to understanding today’s market dynamics. Whales who accurately shorted the market before the October 11 flash crash, making $160 million, now hold new short positions worth about $75.93 million at $109,133.1. Similarly, addresses associated with Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, hold short positions of $31.14 million in BTC and $46.86 million in Ethereum, with liquidation prices at $115,000 and $4,073 respectively.

On the bullish side, some mysterious whales have increased their long positions to $200 million, including 1,610.93 BTC. This conflicting positioning suggests that a large-scale liquidation could occur depending on which way the market moves. The 24-hour BTC long/short ratio is slightly favoring shorts at 49.3%/50.7%, indicating near balance between the two.

Mt. Gox Repayments and Selling Pressure

By October 31, the repayment obligations of Mt. Gox’s trustee could lead to the sale of approximately 22,253 BTC (about $2.4 billion). This massive sell-off could add further downward pressure to an already bearish market. This concern among market participants has contributed to recent sentiment deterioration.

Diverse Expert Outlooks

Technical analyst Crypto Tony predicts Bitcoin could fall below $100,000 and find a bottom between $91,000 and $95,000. Meanwhile, analyst Charles Edwards believes that if Bitcoin breaks through $120,000, the price could quickly rise to $150,000. The stark difference in these forecasts highlights the extreme uncertainty in the market.

Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Chronos Research, pointed out that technically, the Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio has reached its lowest level historically, suggesting the potential for a new bullish cycle. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, mentioned that he holds a small amount of Bitcoin as a long-term diversifier alongside gold, despite noting drawbacks such as central banks’ inability to hold it. Overall, he recognizes Bitcoin’s role as an alternative asset to gold.

Ethereum’s Potential Rebound

Ethereum is currently trading around $3,020, with support levels at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and near $3,500, which is a strong bullish support zone. Famous technical analyst John Bollinger suggests the chart may be forming a bullish “W bottom” reversal pattern.

Analyst FOUR predicts that if the rebound momentum continues, ETH could break through the $4,450–$4,500 range, and trader Luca even sees the possibility of reaching a new high of $5,200. On-chain MVRV data also supports the view that a new upward cycle has begun.

Tom Lee’s Ethereum asset management firm BitMine has held 379,271 ETH (about $1.5 billion) since the crash on October 11, and Tom Lee himself emphasizes that Ethereum will become a pillar of the digital economy, with the current cyclical peak having passed.

Structural Changes in the Market

Crypto influencer Yuzhong Kuangshui believes that the crypto market will see “adoption” as the main theme over the next 3–5 years, with stablecoins likely to be at the core. The founder of Wintermute pointed out that the October 11 crash was triggered by specific news and amplified by high leverage and flawed trading mechanisms.

Going forward, liquidity is expected to concentrate in mainstream assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, while the altcoin market may see a short-term decline in popularity. Mozaik Capital’s head of trading, Joshua Deuk, also notes that market confidence is waning, and the market may enter a short-term high-volatility accumulation phase.

Future Outlook

Whether Bitcoin can break through the current resistance of $111,000 will be a critical turning point for the next trend. The bulls argue that the bullish momentum cannot be ignored, while bears warn of further declines. While technical indicators suggest a contrarian trading opportunity, worsening sentiment and rising selling pressure could also lead to a drop below $100,000.

The fact that the Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio has hit a record low suggests a major revaluation of one of these assets may be approaching. Today’s Bitcoin market is in a state where short-term volatility conceals long-term opportunities, and investors need to stay vigilant and watchful of the next move in the market.