Technical View on Bitcoin: Stability Above Total Demand After Rejection of Distribution

Bitcoin remains within a broader corrective structure after a sharp rejection from the $116K 108K–( supply zone, which represents the total demand zone )0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement. This rejection formed a distribution top, followed by an extended downward movement until November–December.
The recent price action reflects Bitcoin's defense of the total demand base at $90K 88K–(, where buyers began building a rounded accumulation structure. Momentum has stabilized, although the trend on higher timeframes has not yet turned bullish.
The moving average structure )has a bearish bias, with short-term stability(
20 EMA: $90,355
50 EMA: $91,318
100 EMA: $94,720
200 EMA: $98,446
Currently, Bitcoin is below all major moving averages, maintaining a medium- to long-term bearish structure. The price is attempting to hold above the micro base level at $88K–$90K, indicating short-term stability, but the upper limit remains constrained as long as the price stays below the 100 and 200 EMA clusters.
The $94.7K–$98.4K zone represents a key dynamic resistance area.
Fibonacci and Price Structure
1 Fibonacci: $126,123
0.786 Fibonacci: $116,399
0.618 Fibonacci: $108,766
0.5 Fibonacci: $103,405
0.382 Fibonacci: $98,043
0.236 Fibonacci: $91,410
Fibonacci 0: $80,687
Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at )$91,410$98K and above the total demand zone, keeping the price within a confined recovery range.
A clean breakout and acceptance above $94K–$88K will open the door for a move toward $103K–$108K, where Fibonacci resistance and EMA cluster align.
Failure to hold above $90K–$85K will again expose Bitcoin to the total demand zone at $80K–$103K .
Structural Context
Price action shows higher lows since the December bottom, indicating early accumulation behavior. However, Bitcoin remains constrained below the downtrend resistance and key EMAs, preventing the movement from being classified as a trend reversal.
A decisive daily close above $98K–(will be necessary to shift the market structure toward a bullish continuation.
RSI Momentum
RSI )14$98K : 45
RSI is recovering from lower levels but remains near neutral, indicating momentum stabilization with limited bullish confidence. This supports the idea of building a base rather than a sharp breakout phase.
📊 Key Levels
Resistance
• $94K–()EMA zone + Fibonacci$103K
• ()0.5 Fibonacci$108K
• ()0.618 Fibonacci$116K
• ()0.786 Fibonacci$88K
Support
• $90K–()Micro base$85K
• $80K–()Total demand$103K
📌 Summary
Bitcoin is forming a structural base after a prolonged decline from the total supply zone. While bearish momentum has slowed and accumulation is developing, the broader structure remains corrective unless the price can strongly reclaim $94K. Until then, Bitcoin is likely to stay in a confined recovery phase with strong resistance above.