Extraordinary Token Dispersion in 2025: From Immediate Losses to Hopes for a Recovery in 2026

2025 was a trial year for the crypto market, but not all digital assets survived it equally. This phenomenon of extreme variance in the yields of various tokens has become one of the most striking characteristics of the past year, signaling profound changes in the crypto asset market. Leading venture capital firm Pantera Capital has provided a detailed analysis of how different levels of the market have shown completely different trajectories, and what this means for the prospects of 2026.

Take the market beyond Bitcoin: the scale of the disaster

If Bitcoin ended 2025 with a modest decline of 6%, then the rest of the market was going through a real test. According to Pantera Capital’s analysis, the token market capitalization (excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) has fallen by about 44% from its peak at the end of 2024. However, this average figure hides the true scale of the problem.

The variance in the results was phenomenal. ETH is down 11%, Solana is down 34%, but the broader altcoin universe is down nearly 60%. The median token has lost about 79% of its value. This is not just a bear market — this is a completely different dynamic, where most assets were in a prolonged recession that began more than a year ago.

Variance as a marker of structural crisis

Pantera Capital emphasized that the extraordinary variance in 2025 reflects not just cyclical fluctuations, but deep structural problems of the crypto market. Unlike in 2023, when fundamentals controlled prices, in 2025, macroshocks, market positioning, and cascading liquidations spoke the language of the market.

Pantera Capital’s special caller noted that governance tokens often do not have clear legal rights to the cash flows available to their holders. This structural uncertainty has become one of the main reasons for the divergence (variance) in prices: investors have lost confidence in the intrinsic value of most tokens.

Large-scale liquidations and depleted liquidity

The year 2025 was marked by recurring sharp fluctuations caused by political decisions, tariff threats, and a changing risk appetite. In October, there was a cascading liquidation that wiped out more than $20 billion in nominal positions — far more than during the collapse of Terra/Luna or the collapse of FTX.

Crypto asset spot trading volumes have halved, from $1.7 trillion in 2024 to $900 billion in 2025. This is the clearest evidence of how investor enthusiasm has changed to caution in the context of macroeconomic uncertainty and the instability of the geopolitical situation.

Stocks win: a dividend from digitalization

An interesting development of events occurred in parallel. Stocks related to the crypto industry performed stronger than the vast majority of tokens. Pantera Capital explained this by the fact that traditional capital flows were more actively directed to digital assets with cash flows made and a clear legal status.

At the same time, in January 2026, most crypto stocks fell again as Bitcoin fell below the $84,000 mark. BTC is currently trading around $84.14K, losing 16.93% for the year, ETH fell to $2.80K (-8.89% for the year), and SOL fell to $117 (-48.42% for the year).

Miners are reorienting: AI instead of blockchain

An interesting phenomenon was the turn of some bitcoin miners towards the infrastructure of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. Those who adapted their business plans to these areas continued to show incoming results, reflecting a broader trend of redirecting technical and financial resources.

Pudgy Penguins: an exception that proves the rule

Against the backdrop of the general decline of altcoins, the Pudgy Penguins project stands out, which has evolved from a speculative “digital luxury item” to a full-fledged IP platform. The company engages users through massive channels (toys, retail partnerships) and then transitions them to Web3 through games and the PENGU token. The ecosystem generated more than $13 million in retail sales and more than 1 million units of products sold, and PENGU was airdropped to more than 6 million wallets. It is one of the strongest NFT brands of this cycle, but its success depends on further expansion and adoption.

Fundamentals: decline in the second half of the year

Pantera Capital noted a deterioration in the fundamentals on the chain. Fees, app revenue, and the number of active addresses have decreased even as the stablecoin supply continues to grow. This divergence (variance) between macroeconomic factors and micro-activity on the chain highlighted the structural problems of the market.

Have we fallen enough? Preparing for 2026

Despite everything, Pantera Capital sees the light in the tunnel. The duration of the downturn in the altcoin sector is now reminiscent of previous crypto bear markets. If fundamentals stabilize and the market moves beyond dependence on bitcoin, then the conditions for 2026 may be more favorable.

Instead of price targets, Pantera sees 2026 as a period of investment revision. Bitcoin infrastructure, stablecoins, and exposure to crypto assets linked to traditional assets (tokenization) will have an advantage in the event of a return in investor enthusiasm.

Pantera Capital’s panel of experts, including Paul Veradittakit, predicts that 2026 will be defined by institutional investor adoption, the rise of real-world asset tokenization, AI-driven security on the blockchain, the consolidation of prediction markets, and crypto IPOs, rather than the widespread return of speculative altcoin rallies.

In conclusion, the variance in the 2025 results reflects profound structural changes in the crypto industry, but it can also serve as a prerequisite for a healthier market development in the future.