A historical macro pattern is restoring: Ethereum on the verge of a new powerful cycle

The combination of global liquidity, the movement of American small caps, and on-chain accumulation on Ethereum creates a macro scenario remarkably similar to the structure that preceded the 2021 bull market. When ETH increased by 226% over nine months in the previous cycle, the prerequisites were exactly the same. Now, at the beginning of 2026, these same signals are reappearing on charts, increasing the likelihood of a delayed but significant capital outflow into Ethereum.

Repeating Macro Pattern: When Liquidity Leads ETH

Crypto analyst Sykodelic has identified three consecutive stages that historically precede major Ethereum moves. This pattern played a key role in 2021 and is now forming again on monthly charts:

1. Breakthrough of global liquidity — international reserves and capital flows are increasing
2. Russell 2000 confirms the trend — US small caps are moving upward
3. Ethereum responds with a delay — ETH begins to rally a few weeks after the first two signals

The last time this macro alignment occurred, it led to an extraordinary result: from March to November 2021, Ether grew by over 226%. Today, the structure is repeating itself. Global liquidity has already broken upward, and Russell 2000 confirmed the breakout shortly thereafter. If historical synchronizations hold, analysts suggest that Ethereum could enter an expansion phase around March 2026 — a delay of about 119 days from the Russell 2000 move, as was the case in the previous cycle.

Russell 2000 as a Compass for Ethereum: When Small Caps Lead Big Moves

Max, CEO of BecauseBitcoin platform, confirms that Russell 2000 has historically acted as a leading indicator for Ethereum’s price movements. The index recently hit a new all-time high near 2,738 — a development that previously preceded periods of aggressive ETH growth.

The logic behind this connection is straightforward: liquidity expansion initially flows into the riskiest assets — small-cap stocks. When the same expansion moves into crypto markets, it often creates a cascading effect. ETH, as the second-largest network in the ecosystem, receives a significant portion of this influx. When Russell 2000 approaches its all-time highs, it often signals that risk appetite is at its peak, and capital is ready to move into even more radical directions.

On-Chain Data Confirms the Bottom: Whale Accumulation Near $2,720

While macro indicators paint an objective picture, on-chain data from analytics platform CryptoQuant tells a story of prudent hands preparing for a strong upward move.

Ethereum accumulation addresses are wallets that consistently buy ETH and never distribute it — they continue to increase their realized price. This indicator is currently near $2,720, which has historically served as a reliable zone of structural support. In previous cycles, ETH’s price rarely fell below the realized price of accumulation addresses for long — when whale-like institutions actively buy, they tend to hold the bottom.

The current ETH price of $1.92K is relatively close to this critical zone, leaving only about 7-8% room for a potential local dip to the $2,720 level. This means the potential risk is limited, and the recovery potential is much higher. The $2,700–$2,750 range also coincides with liquidity clusters on external derivative platforms, adding technical plausibility to a scenario based solely on on-chain data.

Macro Alignment Dominates Short-Term Fluctuations

Meanwhile, analysts emphasize that short-term price fluctuations and current crypto narratives often diverge from the bigger picture. On-chain capital cycles are driven not by headlines or momentum pressure but by global liquidity.

The most powerful ETH rallies in history began after liquidity expansion and a quiet return of risk appetite — often before the broader public realized the shift in sentiment. In 2021, no one was talking about Ethereum in January. By November, the same asset had become a symbol of a sideways market. The scenario worked because the macro pattern preceded the narrative.

If the current macro alignment — global liquidity, Russell 2000 rally, whale accumulation near the critical zone — continues to hold, Ethereum could be preparing for a natural breakout. This is not a guarantee but a logical sequence of historical signals repeating in real time.