Bitcoin Price Analysis: Technical Signals Indicate a New Bearish Cycle

Bitcoin faces significant selling pressure, and the market is now discussing much less optimistic scenarios. After breaking essential support levels, the price of the coin is below $80,000, with a risk-averse sentiment. The current technical structure reproduces patterns observed in previous market cycles, suggesting a longer bearish phase.

Accelerated Drop Breaks Critical Price Supports

In recent sessions, Bitcoin has fallen more than 6%, dropping to approximately $77,600 and marking ten-month lows. The price has struggled to recover significantly, remaining weak below the psychological barrier of $80,000. The loss of support around $80,700 — which represented the market’s true moving average in an uptrend — has intensified expectations of further decline. This break was decisive in fueling the pessimism now dominating traders’ and analysts’ conversations.

Price Targets Indicate Deeper Levels

The market already identifies lower liquidity zones as potential near-term stops. Analysts highlight $74,400 as an important intermediate technical level, while some point to $49,180 as a possible larger target if the downtrend continues. This drastic shift in expectations reflects how quickly sentiment turned after the defensive failure at key supports. The current price of $71.19K, according to February 2026 data, is already well below these historical supports.

Technical Indicators Confirm Risk Trend

A concerning signal is the break of the 21-week exponential moving average, an indicator that historically preceded significant decline phases. Rekt Capital noted that the current movement replicates past cycles: since the last crossover of this EMA, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 17%, from $90,000 to $78,000. The same crossover pattern occurred in April 2022, before a prolonged period of structural decline. This historical repetition reinforces the bearish scenario described by technical analysts.

Short-Term Opportunity in CME Gap

Despite the bearish structure, traders are monitoring a futures gap on CME near $84,000. These gaps tend to act as price magnets in the short term, potentially attracting Bitcoin for a rebound in the coming weeks. However, this movement would be only a temporary technical relief unless larger supports are recovered and the structural trend is reversed.

On-Chain Analysis Reinforces Bearish Scenario

CryptoQuant’s research presents alarming data: Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price of investors holding positions for 12 to 18 months. This realized price, which represents the average cost at which coins last moved, now acts as a resistance level — meaning rallies face selling at break-even points. When BTC breaks and remains below this level, markets traditionally shift from normal corrections to structural bear regimes. The combination of: price below realized cost, negative accumulated returns, and slowed growth aligns perfectly with historical bearish phases.

The current situation shows multiple risk signals. Technical supports have been violated, critical moving average levels broken, and on-chain data shows structural weakness. While a rebound to $84,000 is possible in the short term, the broader trend remains bearish. Analysts are now discussing deeper declines, with scenarios below $50,000 in continuation scenarios. Manage your positions carefully.