The "miners surrender" theory, where emotional narratives outweigh actual impact

There is a common saying in the market—"Miner surrender signals the bottom." This statement has some historical basis, but it is not always accurate. Miners are indeed an important supply side, but they are not the sole force determining prices.
When mining difficulty decreases, it is often accompanied by some miners shutting down or migrating. However, this is more of a rational choice driven by profit considerations rather than emotional panic selling. Many large miners have hedging, inventory management, and long-term electricity agreements, so they do not simply panic sell their coins.
In reality, miners' selling pressure accounts for a limited portion of overall market trading. The true factors influencing prices remain macro liquidity, risk appetite, and capital structure. Equating difficulty reduction directly with an imminent crash is an oversimplification.
Interestingly, miners' behavior often lags behind the market. Prices change first, and miners react afterward, rather than miners leading the trend. Therefore, using mining data as a reference indicator is helpful, but it should not be the sole basis for judgment.
From a game theory perspective, the market tends to amplify the "surrender narrative" because emotions spread more easily. However, rational investors focus more on data continuity rather than single fluctuations.
Difficulty reduction is a signal, but not a verdict. It indicates industry adjustment rather than collapse.
#比特币挖矿难度下降