Pre-NFP Shock in the US: Bitcoin Drops to $66,000, Market Bets on Employment Data Influencing BTC Movement
On February 11, it was reported that due to heightened market focus on the upcoming U.S. January non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data, Bitcoin’s price sharply retreated over the past 24 hours to around $66,000. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields moved in tandem, with Wall Street generally expecting employment numbers to rebound, which could weaken the Federal Reserve’s possibility of rate cuts in June, thereby exerting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the January employment report today. Economists forecast that non-farm payrolls will increase by about 70,000, higher than December’s 50,000, indicating that while the labor market is slowing, it remains resilient. The forecast range varies from a decrease of 10,000 jobs to an increase of 135,000, with the unemployment rate likely holding at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual growth rate slowing to 3.6%.
Among institutions, JPMorgan Securities, Wells Fargo, UBS Group, and Citigroup tend to expect figures above expectations; while Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, and Morgan Stanley judge the data to be weaker than anticipated. If the results surpass expectations, market bets on rate cuts will further cool down. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is close to 50%.
Meanwhile, the BLS will also publish annual revisions. Previously, it was estimated that over the 12 months ending March 2025, the U.S. would add 911,000 fewer jobs than initially projected, adding more uncertainty to the economic outlook.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,898, with a daily range of $66,561 to $69,954. Mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, XRP, BNB, SOL, and ADA are also experiencing a pullback. Michael Saylor, Anthony Scaramucci, and CZ all stated that the downturn phase is more suitable for long-term positioning rather than panic selling.
Analyst Ted Pillows pointed out that BTC is at a critical support level; if it breaks below, it may test the $60,000 mark. Research firm Kaiko noted that recent volatility has triggered liquidations of about $9 billion, with stablecoins accounting for over 10%. However, declining trading volume indicates retail investor sentiment is becoming more cautious.
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