2.11 Cycle Review Post, New Year Countdown, 2 days left. People are more beautiful than West Lake, and the heart is more turbulent than the boat.

[Stock Forum]

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I came into this world misunderstood by society. You say there is love among people, but what is love?**
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I entered commercial spaceflight, misunderstood by the market. You say a successful launch means a market trend, but what is a trend?**

People are more beautiful than West Lake, but their hearts sway more than boats

Thinking is more beautiful than West Lake, but actions sway more than boats

Market

Below 200 billion, Shanghai side is more fake

Shenzhen and ChiNext are more genuine. Normally, it should be a downward correction to reset the trend

So who is wrong? One side must correct the deviation

Is Shenzhen leading Shanghai downward, or is it downward, or downward?

Pre-holiday volume shrinkage officially begins. Tomorrow is the last day for fund withdrawals.

Normal divergence still exists; funds have already taken a break, and it will be discussed after the holiday.

Profit-making Effect

Strong divergence expected to continue opening tomorrow

Intraday profit effect still not focused

In recognition and grouping

For example, Jiamei Packaging, a low-position stock repeatedly merging into new one-word equity acquisition varieties

For example, the trend of optical modules in Longfei Fiber, with a new one-word optical fiber rebound at low levels

It’s not about high levels being strong, but low levels being strong.

The only 4-board + chemical recognition is Baichuan, very strong, still a low-level rebound. Fuel can also be considered chemical.

Then there’s random low-level rotation based on good news.

Sentiment Cycle

Chaos trying to turn into a main rise

Losses are converging

Profit effect not focused

At least the sectors are not focused

Here, an attempt to initiate a decline phase three

This wave is really tough, first quarter’s fate was very unlucky

Three Salvador events, surviving as a super short-term ahead of the curve, is not easy.

Hengdian Film and TV, although hit the limit down, shows resistance; feedback isn’t too bad.

The gorilla’s hand is really long. No need to block it; I’ll just call it Gorilla from now on.

Theme Cycle

Old cycle

Commercial aerospace

Horizontal long must fall. Today, if you recognize the good news of the successful launch,

it should continue to decline for a second correction, giving better expectations.

But it’s just a happy moment if it’s not successful; if it fails, it’s cashing out, and if it succeeds, it’s also cashing out.

This is likely the start of decline phase three divergence.

AI applications

Anchored on Zhite New Materials, which finally broke out of the second decline

Confirmed the tide is receding effectively

Gold and Silver

A decline continues the weak trend

New cycle trial and error

AI computing power, overseas computing power

Leading varieties, Longfei Fiber, trend of main rise, hard to define stages

Replaced Jinhai Tong

Trend divergence rate is large, with new low-level rebounds, like Xifa Information

Intraday still not strong

Overseas computing power segmentation today, due to Taiyao’s production cut, led to rising PCB and electronic component segments

Temporarily rotating

Longfei Fiber here is basically a continuation of stage three main rise, showing some stagnation, with potential for divergence of three into four or a decline divergence.

Chemical Industry

Baichuan Shares is continuing the main rise stage two

Internal segmentation, fuel still has room for activity

Low-level chemical price rise logic is very active

Coal sector rotated again in the afternoon

The overall rhythm is crossing through the compound decline of gold and silver, resonating with a decline, then a recovery, and continuing to strengthen

Once gold and silver start decline phase two, it’s easy to see a catch-up drop.

AI Seedance + Domestic Computing Power

Domestic computing power now revolves around SD fermentation, can observe together

SD is the new cycle, new main line, or AI applications, Zhite Blue batch’s fifth rebound

No conclusion yet as of today.

Wednesday’s overall trend matches expectations, with differentiation. Front runners still cannot buy, and even add positions.

Back runners are losing out, showing batch losses; these back runners are the source of tomorrow’s divergence continuation.

Will further transmit to the front.

Three one-word stocks have not opened yet.

Long Yun Shares, small-cap, sentiment stocks

Zhangyue Technology, core logic, one-word indicator

Dawen Technology, ByteDance computing power, capacity stocks

Chinese Online here is below expectations. If anchored as the central army of this direction,

today’s low buy must close green to meet expectations.

Feels like today’s market has changed. Jie Cheng Shares did this, but in terms of IP copyright recognition,

not as good as Chinese Online.

Thursday, in this direction, the normal expectation is divergence, with the expectation to choose strong stocks to keep the momentum.

So, the normal morning session should rotate into other directions, but the late session is dominated by AI applications.

This is crazy; it shows the market despises other directions deeply.

At the same time, it’s quite pessimistic about tomorrow’s main market.

Style and Market Bias

Most likely trend-based main rise

Supporting with continuous boards

In the current volume-shrinking environment, trend capacity is unfavorable

Good news for small stocks

Looking at margin financing and securities lending curves, recent continuous cliff-like outflows

This is the underlying logic of recent volume shrinkage

Basically, the market lacks a good profit-making trend, funds don’t want to enter

The market isn’t short of money, but everyone who enters ends up losing. Who the hell wants to come?

Quantitative Era
Objectively competing with quantification is impossible; only human subjectivity can surpass it.
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My subjective view is:**

The first half of the week, sentiment can still be played; the second half, it will get harder and harder.

Intraday rhythm: either buy low and rebound strongly, or identify weak-to-strong on the first day of the high level.

Once the weak-to-strong shift succeeds with volume shrinkage, the second wave will be stronger, full of traps.

Theme thinking is heading towards year-end.

One, two, three; before two and three, can be seen. Three is likely an effective turning point.

After Wednesday,

Chemical, oil, and general commodities give up; unsure how futures will move within the session.

Consumer stocks give up; easy to be兑现 after the holiday.

Commercial aerospace give up; the chip structure is too poor.

AI applications, last day to see if there’s a recognizable涨停.

AI hardware, overseas sector, give up; unsure how overseas will ferment within the session.

AI hardware, domestic sector, focus.

Robotics, focus.

Today’s stablecoins also had good news; can also watch if funds take the lead on the last day.

In summary, around the post-holiday opening, sentiment and indices resonate in the same direction for a strong start.

Half-position for the holiday, because no one knows what will ferment after the holiday.

If it’s like today, with no core holdings, Chinese Online can’t go up on Monday.

Monday’s notes are unchanged.

Space Development
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Afternoon opening, reduced positions**
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Cleared at the close**

This is really tough; waiting for a rebound is not excessive.

No funds rushed to buy at the close.

Waited 6 days for a rebound, but the more you wait, the lower it gets.

If tomorrow’s early trading shows big divergence on SD side, there’s still rotation chances, but I really can’t trust quantification anymore.

This stock is now dominated by quant funds, no retail funds; if the market turns down, it’s scary.

Honestly, it’s been falling for 6 days straight; a rebound should be given.

But tomorrow is critical; I don’t want to waste more time on it.

Jie Cheng Shares

Afternoon pullback to the moving average, second and third top divergence, clear out.

Still some buying at the close, but I don’t want to hold the front. If it shows strength again tomorrow, I’ll watch for a comeback.

Afraid of panic at the open dragging it down, then it rises again, affecting sentiment.

Theme explosion on the first day, one-word large orders, upward elasticity arbitrage.

This wave is just the usual two-day explosion; yesterday’s upward elasticity arbitrage wasn’t a big issue.

Wednesday, divergence day, buy the middle army at the low; if you anchor today’s Chinese Online as the middle army, it doesn’t feel good. Because even good low buys won’t make money.

Thursday, divergence day, leaning towards the front, betting on weak-to-strong the next day leading into the main rise stage two.

Friday, sector rotation, picking active weak-to-strong stocks among divergence-resistant varieties.

I’m out of position, rarely empty
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Following the plan, tomorrow is the semi-final of the year-end cross. The day after is the final.**
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If you don’t understand, wait for the last day.**