The logic behind the $311 million fund inflow: How spot Bitcoin ETFs are reshaping market pricing and volatility

Three days, $311 million, almost erasing all outflows from the past three weeks. The capital curve of the spot Bitcoin ETF has just completed a textbook V-shaped reversal. However, while institutional investors are heavily subscribing through the ETF channel, Bitcoin’s price has quietly fallen below $67,000, hitting a two-week low.

This is not the familiar “inflow equals rally” script the market knows. The rare disconnect between capital and price—whether it’s a sign of liquidity transmission slowing down or smart money precisely accumulating under a veil of pessimism—is worth examining. Goldman Sachs’ Q4 rebalancing report, which shows reductions in IBIT, and initial positions in XRP and SOL, also reveal new asset allocation logic among traditional financial institutions.

This article will analyze the deeper narrative behind the $311 million capital rebound from three perspectives: capital flows, institutional behavior, and the transfer of pricing power.

Crossroads of Capital: Reconstructing the Narrative Behind the $311 Million Net Inflow

As of February 11, 2026, the US spot Bitcoin ETF market experienced a textbook reversal of sentiment. According to SoSoValue’s latest data, in the first three trading days of this week, these compliant funds recorded a total net inflow of $311.6 million, nearly offsetting last week’s net outflow of $318 million. On February 10 alone, net inflows reached $167 million—the highest single-day inflow in the past 15 trading days.

Weekly capital flows of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in 2026. Data source: SoSoValue

This turnaround cannot be fully understood by numbers alone. Just a week ago, the spot Bitcoin ETF was still in a three-week “bleeding” phase, with cumulative outflows exceeding $3 billion. At that time, Bitcoin (BTC) had just retreated from its all-time high of $126,080, the market’s fear index briefly dropped below 10, entering extreme fear territory. Now, the capital curve has formed a classic V-shaped recovery—not just mean reversion, but a second confirmation of Bitcoin’s underlying logic as a core asset class.

Gate’s market data shows that, driven by continuous ETF capital inflows, the ratio of active buy orders in the spot market increased from 42% last week to 51%, and the number of large on-chain transfer addresses grew by 13.6%. The resonance between capital flows and on-chain activity is building a new price equilibrium zone.

Dissecting Institutional Behavior: Goldman Sachs’ Multi-Asset Hedge Logic in Reducing IBIT, Initiating XRP and SOL Positions

In the wave of ETF capital inflows, the quarterly rebalancing reports of traditional financial giants often provide more forward-looking insights than daily capital flows. According to the latest 13F filings with the SEC, Goldman Sachs significantly restructured its crypto ETF holdings in Q4 2025.

Goldman Sachs’ holdings of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) in Q4 2025. Data source: SEC

Superficially, the data suggests “withdrawal”:

• Reduced holdings of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by 39%, from 70 million shares to 40.6 million shares, roughly $2 billion in market value.
• Slight reductions in Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and Bitcoin ATM operator Bitcoin Depot.

Deeper structural signals reveal “attack” intentions:

• First-time position in XRP ETF, acquiring 6.95 million shares worth $152 million.
• First-time position in Solana ETF, acquiring 8.24 million shares worth $104 million.
• Ethereum ETF holdings remain stable at around $1 billion.

Overall, Goldman Sachs’ total crypto exposure via ETF channels has risen to $2.36 billion, including $1.1 billion in Bitcoin, $1 billion in Ethereum, and $256 million in XRP and SOL combined.

This “reducing Bitcoin, increasing altcoin ETF” repositioning is not mere risk avoidance. It sends at least three signals:

First, the acceleration of standardization in compliant asset portfolios. Once XRP and SOL are recognized as non-securities by the SEC and successfully listed in mainstream ETF products, traditional institutions are upgrading their asset allocation from “single Bitcoin asset” to “multi-asset core + satellite.” Bitcoin remains the core holding, but XRP and SOL are included as satellite exposures to capture beta returns from different sectors (cross-border payments, high-performance public chains).

Second, the involvement of relative value strategies. Goldman Sachs’ entry points coincide with SOL retracing 42% from its yearly high and XRP pulling back 35% from its peak. This echoes the logic of grayscale trust arbitrage in 2024—institutions are exploiting secondary market premiums and discounts through ETF arbitrage.

Third, pre-pricing SEC regulatory attitudes. During Q4, when these positions were established, the average daily trading volume of XRP and SOL ETFs was only 2.3% and 1.8% of Bitcoin ETF volume, respectively. Goldman Sachs’ willingness to build million-dollar positions at this stage suggests its compliance department has given the green light to the long-term viability of these products.

Spatiotemporal Dislocation of Price and Capital: Why Are ETFs Buying While BTC Is Falling?

This is the most perplexing contradiction in the current market. As of 16:00 (UTC+8) on February 11, 2026, Gate’s spot trading platform shows:

• Bitcoin (BTC) price: $66,915
• 24-hour trading volume: $913 million
• Market cap: $1.38 trillion (55.93% market share)
• 24-hour change: -3.22%
• 7-day change: -11.59%
• 30-day change: -23.78%

A sharp question arises: Why, despite three days of net ETF inflows, has Bitcoin’s price broken below $67,000?

Reason 1: Generation Shift in Arbitrage Vehicles

During the 2024–2025 bull cycle, ETF inflows and BTC prices were highly correlated, with the transmission path being: ETF buying → custodians increasing spot holdings → exchange inventories decreasing → price rising. But by 2026, this mechanism has been dulled by basis trade saturation.

The annualized basis of CME Bitcoin futures has compressed from 12% in early 2025 to 4.7%, below the institutional weighted financing cost (~5.2%). This means that cash-and-carry arbitrage yields have turned negative, forcing many hedge funds to unwind their “buy ETF + short futures” strategies. ETF subscriptions no longer necessarily lead to net spot buying—some inflows are simply liquidity hedges to close existing positions.

Reason 2: Macro Hedge Selling Pressure

Despite the market pricing in a 68% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, the crypto fear-and-greed index remains at 9, in extreme fear territory. Macro hedge funds are generally holding short positions in futures to hedge against short-term correlations with US tech stocks and BTC. According to QCP Capital, about 37% of open BTC futures contracts are held for hedging purposes, up from 21% in the same period in 2025.

Reason 3: Structural Supply-Side Stagnation

The $70,000 level has become a liquidity dead zone. On-chain data from Gate shows that in the $66,000–$70,000 range, there are 346,000 BTC addresses with an on-chain cost basis, with over 62% in loss. These coins, when the price rebounds near their cost basis, will exert persistent selling pressure. The $167 million daily net ETF inflow, in a market with an average daily spot volume exceeding $15 billion, is insufficient to absorb this structural supply.

From Capital Flows to Price Discovery: How ETFs Are Changing Bitcoin’s Volatility Profile

A deeper insight is that spot Bitcoin ETFs are reshaping Bitcoin’s intraday volatility pattern.

Backtesting Gate data shows that since ETF capital inflows resumed positive growth, Bitcoin’s volatility during US stock trading hours (21:30–04:00 Beijing time) has been 23% higher than during Asian trading hours, compared to only 9% in the same period in 2025.

This indicates that Bitcoin’s price discovery is shifting toward Wall Street’s trading hours. ETF subscription/redemption activities mainly occur around US market open, with market makers hedging inventory risk by establishing positions in CME futures. This cross-market linkage causes Bitcoin’s short-term price discovery to move from 24/7 spot trading to a 6.5-hour window aligned with US stock hours.

For Gate users, this suggests that when assessing intraday support and resistance levels, besides traditional technical indicators, ETF flow data and CME futures gaps should be incorporated. Currently, a gap exists at $67,500 in CME Bitcoin futures, which has become a short-term key level.

Long-Term Value Anchor: What Are We Trading at $66,915?

Based on Gate’s model, here are some purely neutral, non-predictive data points as of February 11, 2026:

• Current BTC price: $66,915, below the 2026 institutional average cost basis of $69,800 (weighted from major ETF holdings).
• This price corresponds to the lower quartile of the 2026 forecast range ($61,468–$98,763).
• It’s a 46.9% decline from the all-time high of $126,080.

From an asset allocation perspective:

The continuous capital inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs demonstrates that this instrument has been successfully integrated into traditional institutions’ rebalancing calendars. Even with a 28% decline over the past year (BTC down 28.23%), ETF assets have only shrunk from a peak of $1 trillion to $600 billion, maintaining a 60% retention rate. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas calls this “the most resilient ETF holdings structure in history”—only about 6% of investors have completely exited during the price decline.

This indicates that the main participants in the current ETF market are no longer retail speculators of 2024 but pension funds, endowments, and family offices with cross-cycle debt management capabilities. Their reaction to $66,915 is behaviorally similar to their response three years ago to $6,000—viewing short-term volatility as a window for accumulation rather than an exit signal.

Conclusion: How Will the Wound Heal?

Three weeks ago, the spot Bitcoin ETF market was still experiencing a weekly outflow of $318 million. Pessimists saw this as the beginning of institutional exit; three weeks later, the $311 million rebound has almost fully covered that wound.

Capital never lies; it only re-prices risk across different narratives. From single-asset Bitcoin to multi-asset ETFs including Ethereum, Solana, and XRP; from crowded basis arbitrage to macro hedging and spot positioning—ETFs are no longer passive reflections of Bitcoin prices but have become part of the pricing mechanism itself.

At Gate, we believe that the best market strategy is not predicting the extremes of the pendulum but sensing its turning points. When $167 million flows in a single day and Bitcoin trades at $66,915 simultaneously, the industry is once again asking its participants a classic question:

Are you seeing a divergence, or the end of divergence?