Will there be disagreements? On one hand, Powell believes that job growth may be overestimated, but the overall economy remains resilient; on the other hand, Board Member Waller explicitly states that the revised data may show that last year's employment "grew almost not at all."

● San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly recently stated that she believes "one or two more rate cuts may still be necessary" to address the soft labor market.

● Daly is particularly concerned about the difficulties faced by workers: rising prices eroding wages, and scarce new job opportunities. She pointed out that the recent difficulties faced by recent college graduates in finding jobs are worrying indicators of a weakening labor market.

V. Market Linkage

● The release of non-farm payroll data has a significant correlation with the crypto market. When employment data falls short of expectations, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin often surge sharply, because market expectations for Fed rate cuts tend to rise accordingly.

● According to recent data, Bitcoin once surged over 3%, reaching above $71,000, after previously falling to around $68,500. Amid intense volatility, data shows that nearly 90,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours.

● Currently, Bitcoin is regarded by the market as a key indicator of risk appetite. The current price remains within a range, with around $80,000 as a critical resistance level, representing whether risk capital will return; and $75,000 as an important support level, reflecting the market’s bottom line during deleveraging.

VI. Investment Strategy

● In light of tonight’s data release, market participants need to prepare for various scenarios. If the data is strong, with more than 120,000 new jobs, it could trigger a sharp short-covering rally in the dollar.

● Conversely, if the data is weak, with fewer than 50,000 new jobs or even negative growth, it will validate the dovish camp’s view. This could push the US dollar index below current support levels.

● The market currently prices about a one-in-six chance of a Fed rate cut in March. If tonight’s employment data underperforms or is significantly revised downward, combined with Friday’s CPI report showing easing inflation pressures, the probability of a rate cut could rise above 33%.

The short-term trend of the dollar depends on tonight’s 21:30 non-farm payroll report. If new jobs exceed 120,000, the dollar index could surge to 99.30; if below 50,000, it may drop to $ETH .