Zhang Yaoxi: Data expectations pressure the dollar to stay weak, with gold prices remaining low and primarily bullish

Zhang Yaoxi: Data Expectations Pressure, Dollar Slightly Weak, Gold Prices Remain Low with a Bullish Outlook
On the previous trading day, Monday (February 9): International gold opened higher and then rebounded to close higher, driven by weekend geopolitical tensions and expectations of major data releases this week. The US dollar index initially declined, supporting gold prices to stay above the midline and breaking through the 10-day moving average resistance. However, further bullish momentum requires sustained positive closes; otherwise, a pullback to the midline or the 30-day moving average support may occur. Still, this presents another entry opportunity for long positions.
In terms of specific movement, gold opened in Asia at $4,987.98 per ounce, initially declined to fill the gap, recording an intraday low of $4,964.04, then rebounded and fluctuated within a range. In the latter half of the US session, bulls regained strength, reaching an intraday high of $5,086.29 at the close, and ultimately ending at $5,058.07. The daily range was $122.25, closing up $70.09 from the open, a 1.41% increase.
Looking ahead to Tuesday (February 10): International gold briefly strengthened at the open before falling back, recovering some of Monday’s gains. This was partly due to US President Trump’s statement that negotiations with Canada on bilateral issues would begin immediately. White House officials clarified that President Trump explicitly does not support Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. This reduced safe-haven demand. Additionally, Trump set a 15% economic growth target, which helped the dollar strengthen early, putting downward pressure on gold prices, causing them to fall at the open.

However, the impact was limited; in the short term, these are just expectations without substantial basis, representing short-term pressure. Today’s focus will be on US December retail sales month-over-month, US November business inventories, and other data. Market expectations are bullish for gold, so intraday trading will continue to favor buying on dips.
Furthermore, this week will see US January unemployment rate, US January non-farm payrolls (in ten-thousands), and US January CPI year-over-year and month-over-month data. Based on last week’s data and market expectations, the overall outlook is likely to be positive for gold, favoring a low-buying, bullish stance. Even if the final results are bearish for gold, the movement will likely be volatile, so maintaining a long bias is not problematic.
Fundamentally, the bulls are showing signs of renewed strength. After previous corrections, the outlook remains optimistic for new highs. This recent pullback appears to be a rapid re-pricing in a high-volatility environment rather than a trend reversal. Amid increased volatility across major global assets, funds frequently switch between risk assets and safe havens, causing gold to experience sharp rises and falls. The bullish trend remains intact.

Currently, the latest data shows job vacancies have fallen to 6.54 million, while weekly initial unemployment claims have risen to 231,000, both indicating a cooling labor market. This change is significant—it not only suggests a higher likelihood of further inflation decline but also boosts market expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. If upcoming data like non-farm payrolls again meet expectations, it will further support the long-term bullish case.
Therefore, during the Fed’s rate-cut cycle, gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, though short-term adjustments may occur due to geopolitical fluctuations and dollar strength driven by other central bank policies. Consequently, gold may either continue to oscillate sideways for several weeks before rising again or extend last week’s rebound to new highs. Overall, the bull market trend remains ongoing.
On the technical side, at the monthly level, gold in February continued the downward trend from January’s bearish reversal, but after testing the resistance turned support of the initial breakout trend, it rebounded, indicating that January’s decline has run its course. The new bull phase remains valid, and the market is likely to stay above this support level, strengthening or oscillating before rising again. Key support is around $4,300; staying above this level maintains bullish expectations for new highs, while closing below suggests the end of the bull market.

At the weekly level, last week’s rebound from the bottom and the end of the previous week’s correction suggest that the bearish top formation is exhausted and that a renewed upward trend is likely. The overall trend remains upward, with support at the 5/10-week moving averages, so buying on dips continues to be a valid strategy.
On the daily chart, recent rebounds after retracing the upward trend channel support indicate that bulls still hold the advantage. The price is currently above the channel support and the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting potential for new highs. Support levels include short-term moving averages and the middle band, providing good entry points for bullish positions.

Gold: Support at around $4,950 or $4,860; resistance at around $5,110 or $5,190.
Silver: Support at around $80.30 or $79.00; resistance at around $86.20 or $87.70.
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
A $1 fluctuation in international gold prices roughly causes a $0.25 change in Gold TD (theoretically).

US futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × days to expiry / 365)
Follow me to make your gold trading ideas clearer!
Reviewing historical cause and effect, interpreting the current environment, and projecting future trends—adhering to bold predictions and cautious trading principles. – Zhang Yaoxi
The above opinions and analyses are solely the author’s personal views, for reference only, not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
You decide your own money.