February 11, 2026, Wednesday Review Happy Lunar New Year

This year’s Little New Year, I also wish all fellow investors a happy Little New Year. No matter how the market or accounts have performed in the past, I hope everyone stays happy! [Taogu Ba]
Logically, I shouldn’t be writing a review today, but the market adjustment today still made many people feel sick. There are only two days left in the year, so I’ll just write a few more words!

Many people are unhappy today because the market is adjusting, but I believe we should be happy. Why do I say that?
First: The AI dream, from any perspective, is disruptive to the industry. It should be considered negative for traditional film and television industries, and positive for upstream sellers—namely data, copyrights, and computing power. However, yesterday’s market saw a large-scale rally in media and entertainment, which was wrong. Today, it was immediately pulled back! The rally was inappropriate and even added to emotional hype, which is deadly.

Second: After experiencing earlier sectors like commercial aerospace, AI marketing, and precious metals, the market hasn’t seen such large-scale moves for a long time. Yesterday’s trading saw this again, and the volume was still shrinking. For yesterday’s movies, it was just a passing scene; many first boards came from and went back to where they came from, creating a situation where good stocks couldn’t get in, and when they did, they ended up in the back rows. If this continues, there will still be situations where good stocks hit a limit-up and get caught, or poor stocks hit a limit-up and enter a long adjustment phase.

If we interpret yesterday’s market as a guide, after the holiday, many will watch media stocks at high levels with frustration. There are fewer low-priced stocks left in the market. Normally, prices should fluctuate up and down, with small rises and falls being the norm. In 2025, small rises and falls should gradually shift capital between high and low!

As for tomorrow’s AI video sector, it depends on whether the market corrects itself, and to what extent. Usually, there will be a surge before correction!

When analyzing this market, it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. Over the past month, the market’s feeling has been very poor. If you can survive and make money, you are a bull. You can have a good year!
1: Remember what happened in the past market—on February 2nd, Huahong, on February 3rd, Cambrian, on February 4th, Zhongji Xuchuang, all had a very rule-based decline. At that time, the conclusion was that the market didn’t want to make the index look too bad, so it was a staged decline. Today, even with the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices in the red, the Shanghai Composite remains green. The basis for maintaining the green is cyclicals, precious metals, lithium mining (Da Zhong Mining, Shengxin Lithium, Yahua Group), and rare earth permanent magnets, especially Northern Rare Earth. The trend of Northern Rare Earth is strongly tied to the index. This scene reminds me of Zhongji Xuchuang on October 16th, which forcibly lifted the index. We need to think about why this is used—because it’s a tool to block others. During the Spring Festival, it won’t be affected and has a safe-haven attribute. Meanwhile, AI hardware is more sensitive to external disturbances! Over the past year, the tech sector here has been driven by US stocks’ movements!

2: What are the main forces doing now? They are just perfunctory, delaying time. Chemical stocks have always been safe-haven assets. Price increases usually happen around April. When that time comes, we see vitamin price hikes, dye price hikes, lithium carbonate price hikes—all appear. But these are already happening in February. Every year, the market pushes these events two months earlier. This has been discussed before: to prevent homogenization of time and create expectations of time differences. The main forces are just perfunctory; we are just small players, so don’t invest too deeply emotionally.

3: Previously, it was said that the main forces want you to make money so they can profit. Do they want the pre-holiday sentiment to be overly excited? No. So what is their intention? I think the heavy sell-off in AI hardware and the rise in safe-haven assets already indicate that this is still the pre-holiday effect suppression. As long as the main forces are maintaining the market, like Zhongji Xuchuang, it feels like they are afraid of missing the late move and leaving traps for themselves. There’s no need to judge whether CPO will adjust later; just look at the current trend—do you want to participate? Do you think the risk-reward ratio is good? That’s enough!

4: The main forces don’t work before the holiday to prevent the market from being affected during the break. After the holiday, they will definitely start working. The question is: where will they work? Are there signs of accumulation? What is the style? This round was driven by anomalies. As long as sentiment is consistent, quantitative trading will be about realization and smashing. In the future, the style will tend to be more walk-and-stop. Currently, retail investors’ doubts are the strongest. The fast pace earlier and the slow pace now form a stark contrast. If the earlier pace was slow, it’s a smooth transition. These people have little to worry about. But those who experienced sectors like aerospace, AI applications, and precious metals—if you tell them the answer, it might not be useful. Just like last week, I was having dinner with a friend whose friend used to do stocks, then futures, then back to stocks, and now has no interest at all. It’s like working in Shanghai suddenly having to work in my rural hometown. The direction must be something we control to cope with external shocks!

Today’s opening prices showed 39 first boards, with 10 opening at the limit-up, and 4 over 5%. I initially thought it was based on yesterday’s data, but it wasn’t. If someone tries to do a one-two breakout today, they’ll likely get burned. This is the ecosystem of short-term continuous boards. Stocks above two boards with strength are low-priced and chemical stocks—optional.

The market is basically like a fan being turned on. Everywhere you look, it’s mostly surging then falling back. The old giants like Power China and Giant Force Tools surged then fell. The new batch like Guangxian Media also fell. A detail: during the day, two stocks hit 20CM upward moves—like Hailanxin—obvious similarity with Guangxian Media, with similar surge amplitudes, then directly pulled down by the main force. The intraday trend shows the same tactics!

Another point: during the intraday rally of stablecoins, look at the trend of Sifang Jingchuang. It’s almost a joke. The morning rally was negligible; the afternoon rally, there was no expectation for today’s market. It’s just perfunctory—only you can’t think of what the perfunctory is! There’s nothing the main force can’t do!

For the next two days, I think it will be slightly better than today. Currently, funds prefer to front-run. Since Thursday’s funds are leaving, some are already pre-judging your pre-judgment. Today’s market has some downward pressure. Tomorrow, retail traders’ desire to buy will be low. As long as the main force doesn’t dominate with defensive stocks, the market will be fine. Aerospace sectors may also give a rebound in the next two days, especially since today’s index closed with some downward pressure, leaving some expectations for tomorrow. Rare earth permanent magnets can’t keep rising forever, so in the next two days, those who missed out in the past two days can look forward to some opportunities. Those who already got the gains should not be greedy; your turn has passed!

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