Opinion: The "speculative era" of the crypto industry may come to an end, as RWA will bring more stable returns

On February 11, 2026, the CNBC Digital Finance Forum in New York became a witness to the transition between the old and new cycles of the crypto industry. Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz confidently stated: as institutional investors with lower risk appetites continue to enter, the era of high-risk, high-reward speculation in crypto is gradually coming to an end.

This is not a pessimistic prophecy but a rite of passage for industry maturity. When Gate platform data shows that the RWA (Real World Asset) track was countercyclical and absorbed long-term capital during the “extreme fear” market in January, we realize that after the narrative decline, true value is beginning to emerge.

From Trust Collapse to Natural Clearing

Novogratz’s assertion is not unfounded. He recalled the dizzying peak of the cycle: the FTX collapse in 2022, when Bitcoin’s price plummeted from a high of $69,000 to $15,700, erasing 78%—a loss of trillions in market confidence.

The real turning point occurred on October 11, 2025. Novogratz specifically mentioned this leverage liquidation event—without a “culprit,” no hacking, and even no clear regulatory negative news. “This is a natural clearing after the narrative decline.” Many retail investors and market makers were wiped out, and the market first realized: the prosperity built solely on emotional leverage will inevitably revert to the mean.

Retail investors dream of multiplying their wealth several times or even dozens of times, while institutions seek a steady annual return of around 10%. As the latter begin to dominate pricing power, the market’s return function is being rewritten.

RWA Is Becoming the Only “Contrarian Sector”

If the view is merely a prediction, then the data in Gate’s January 2026 transparency report is a factual footnote.

Just last January, the overall crypto market sentiment plunged into “extreme fear,” with Bitcoin down 9.7% for the month and Ethereum down 9.9%. Yet, in this broad decline environment, projects focused on RWA and prediction markets demonstrated remarkable resilience.

According to data from RWA.xyz, a partner data source of Gate, as of February 6, 2026, the on-chain RWA total market cap has rapidly grown to $24.4 billion, with the number of holders surging to 833,900. More importantly, the structural change is evident: the growth rate of holders (+36.52%) far exceeds the growth in total scale (+13.06%). The driving force behind this growth has shifted from expanding capital scale to expanding user base—concrete evidence of real adoption rather than price speculation.

Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov made a bolder prediction on the same day: the total value of tokenized real-world assets will surpass that of traditional crypto assets in the future. This is not encroachment but a fundamental shift in industry focus.

Why is RWA Taking the Lead?

Why RWA? Because it addresses the industry’s most critical flaw: the inability to generate stable cash flows.

Novogratz clearly pointed out that future industry growth will shift from high-leverage speculation to practical applications like tokenization of real-world assets. Crypto infrastructure will be used to build global banking and financial service systems, rather than solely serving high-volatility asset trading.

This shift is already reflected in the Gate ecosystem. The integration of TradFi and crypto has crossed a “critical point” and entered an accelerated phase of programmable finance. The T+1 settlement efficiency of traditional finance is being replaced by blockchain’s 24/7, near-real-time operational logic.

Currently, RWA in the market are no longer just concepts:

• Tokenized government bonds and money market funds: approximately $8-9 billion in scale, offering stable yields of 4%-6%;
• Private credit: $2-6 billion in scale, with yields up to 8%-12%;
• Tokenized stocks and ETFs: protocols like Ondo Finance support over 200 tokenized US stock trades, including Nvidia, Tesla, and others.

For institutional treasurers managing billions in idle funds, converting on-chain cash from interest-free stablecoins into interest-bearing RWA assets is an obvious choice.

Gate’s Strategic Positioning: From Trading Platform to Multi-Asset Financial Ecosystem

Faced with structural industry shifts, Gate’s approach is not passive adaptation but a long-term, forward-looking layout spanning years.

By February 2026, Gate’s registered users exceeded 49 million, with derivatives market share ranking among the top three globally. Beyond impressive trading volume, Gate’s true moat lies in its systematic ability to “map professional derivative positions into simple tokenized formats.”

Currently, Gate supports 244 ETF leverage tokens, serving over 200,000 traders. More importantly, Gate is evolving from a “user-friendly professional trading platform” to a “user-centric, diversified trading ecosystem.” Gate’s TradFi trading volume has surpassed $20 billion, allowing users to trade metals, forex, indices, commodities, and stocks within a single system.

This is a microcosm of Novogratz’s description of “crypto infrastructure serving the global financial system.”

Steady Returns Are Not Mediocre: Compound Interest Is the New Path to Wealth

For users accustomed to chasing hundredfold gains on Gate’s platform, an annualized 10% may seem unappealing. But Novogratz’s insight cuts through the misconception: in crypto, capital preservation is already outperforming.

The leverage liquidation in October 2025 proved that a 100x expected return on leveraged longs often results in a 100% loss of principal when realized. Conversely, tokenized US Treasuries offering a 4.5% risk-free yield are verified on-chain in real-time and represent fractionalized, real rights.

This is not conservatism but maturity.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has announced plans to issue the first stablecoin licenses by March 2026. CME is testing tokenized cash with Google, and BlackRock executives have called blockchain “the biggest financial breakthrough since double-entry bookkeeping.” Traditional finance is voting with its feet, and the high reserve ratio of 125% and Bitcoin reserve ratio of 140% in Gate’s Proof of Reserve system provide the technological confidence to attract compliant institutional funds.

Summary

On February 11, 2026, we may be standing at the crossroads of two eras.

The speculative era, which relied on whitepapers and narratives to raise hundreds of millions of dollars, is receding. It is being replaced by a real income era composed of government bond yields, rent dividends, stock dividends, and credit interest.

At Gate, we see a shift in user behavior: strategic capital is increasingly flowing into RWA-related assets, holding periods are extending from hours to weeks, and discussions of “10% annualized” returns are gradually replacing the pursuit of “hundreds of times.”

Mike Novogratz said that the essence of the crypto market is “narrative-driven assets.” Today, the most compelling narrative is: assets are creating value themselves, without relying on exit liquidity to profit.

The era of speculation is over; the era of investment has just begun.