$408 million in orders pending liquidation: Can Ethereum hold the $1,900 level?

The current cryptocurrency market is experiencing a dual squeeze of sentiment and leverage. According to Gate’s market panel, Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at $1,940, down 4% over the past 24 hours. However, beneath this calm surface, the latest liquidation map from Coinglass has lit up red: if ETH falls below $1,900, the total long liquidation strength on major centralized exchanges could reach as high as $408 million; conversely, if it breaks above $2,100, short liquidations could hit an astonishing $1.027 billion.

In this article, Gate will exclusively analyze the market logic behind these data points, helping you understand how “liquidation strength” can become a gravitational field that influences ETH’s short-term movement.

ETH Real-Time Market Data on February 11

As of press time, Gate’s spot trading data shows ETH/USDT at $1,940. This level is extremely sensitive:

• Resistance above: $2,050 marks the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. If ETH can hold this level, it may test the resistance zone at $2,100–$2,150.
• Support below: The most critical psychological support is at the $1,900 mark. If this level is broken, the price could rapidly slide toward the $1,800–$1,850 support band.

Gate Research Institute notes that the current market fear and greed index has fallen to 11, indicating “extreme fear.” In such emotional states, price touches on liquidation points tend to be abrupt rather than gradual—often resulting in a “liquidity drain” followed by a sudden collapse.

How to Properly Understand “Liquidation Strength of $408 Million”?

Many traders tend to fall into a misconception: believing that “$408 million” is the exact dollar amount of positions about to be forcibly liquidated. This is incorrect.

According to Coinglass’s official explanation, the bars on the liquidation chart do not represent the precise number or value of contracts pending liquidation. Instead, they show the “relative importance/strength of liquidation clusters.”

Simplified explanation:

• Common understanding: When the price hits $1,900, the market will “experience” $408 million in forced liquidations.
• Correct understanding: When the price reaches $1,900, the leveraged orders accumulated at that level create a liquidity vortex. The taller the bar, the stronger the price point’s reflexivity impact on the market—meaning the price is more likely to spike, plunge, or reverse sharply at this level.

This implies that $1,900 is not just a price point but also a significant market sentiment switch.

On-Chain Data Reveals “Smart Money” Movements

While retail traders remain panicked and cautious, on-chain whales are showing a completely different strategy. Gate has tracked the following key dynamics:

Contrarian Bottom-Fishing

Despite ETH dropping over 30% since the start of the year and breaking through the average entry prices of several ETF addresses, whale address “BitMine” still bought 40,000 ETH on February 11 and continues to stake 140,400 ETH. Currently, this address’s total staked ETH has reached 2.97 million. The net change in exchange holdings turning negative also indicates that the accumulation of self-custodied assets via withdrawals from exchanges is ongoing.

Leveraged Position Additions

Not all large holders are lucky. The biggest ETH long position holder on Hyperliquid added 5,000 ETH when the price fell to $1,950, attempting to lower their average cost, but their overall unrealized loss has now expanded to $10.43 million. Additionally, well-known institution Trend Research closed its ETH positions on February 9, with total losses reaching $869 million in this cycle.

What Happens if Liquidation Is Triggered?

Let’s run a hypothetical stress test:

Scenario A: ETH falls below $1,900

• Direct impact: Long liquidation strength of $408 million. This would wipe out a large number of buy orders on the order book.
• Chain reaction: Breaking below a key structural support. According to Gate’s technical model, if $1,900 fails, support levels below will shift down to $1,850 or even lower.
• Sentiment transmission: ETH’s sharp decline often triggers a new round of capitulation across the altcoin market.

Scenario B: ETH breaks above $2,100

• Direct impact: Short liquidation strength of $1.027 billion. This figure is 2.5 times the long liquidation strength, indicating that short positions are far more crowded.
• Short squeeze opportunity: Once broken, short covering will push prices rapidly higher, creating a classic “short squeeze” rally.

Summary

During periods of high volatility in a single asset, mature investors tend to diversify risk. Gate is not only a spot and derivatives trading platform but also a window connecting you to the traditional financial world.

As of February 11, Gate’s TradFi trading volume has surpassed $33 billion, with a peak daily volume exceeding $6 billion. Here, you can trade gold, silver, Tesla, Nvidia, Apple stocks, and commodities CFDs without switching apps, with leverage up to 500x.

When the on-chain world is filled with liquidation uncertainty, using Gate TradFi to allocate assets like gold (XAUUSD) or core US stocks might serve as a ballast to help you navigate through bull and bear markets.