Futures prices surge! Is the "third super cycle" of lithium prices coming? (Related stocks)

On Wednesday, energy metals performed strongly, with lithium mining concept stocks leading the gains. Guocheng Mining rose over 9%, with Zhongda Mining, Yahua Group, and others following suit.

Fundamentally, after recent adjustments, the main contract price of lithium carbonate futures closed up more than 9% on Wednesday.

UBS Group: The Market Has Entered the Third Super Cycle of Lithium Prices

UBS’s recent research report indicates that the market has entered the third super cycle of lithium prices. The ongoing supply-demand gap will support prices significantly above market consensus.

UBS has raised its 2026 spodumene price forecast by 74% to $3,131 per ton, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices both increased by 58% to $26,000 per ton. The 2027 spodumene price forecast is $3,469 per ton, 22% higher than previous expectations. These price forecasts are notably above market consensus, reflecting UBS’s view of tight supply and demand.

UBS predicts global lithium demand will grow by 14% in 2026 and 16% in 2027. In the long term, demand will double from 1.7 million tons in 2025 to 3.4 million tons in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13% before 2035.

Demand for electric vehicles remains steady. UBS’s research draws two key conclusions: first, EV sales will accelerate again in the medium term. Although U.S. policy shifts may temporarily slow global EV growth below the five-year CAGR of 13%, the realization of the “triple parity” will drive accelerated EV sales by the end of this century. UBS expects global EV penetration to reach 58% by 2035, up from 23% in 2025. Second, Chinese automakers will continue to rise and be most competitive in niche segments of the mass market.

The surge in energy storage system demand is also a significant growth point. China’s new capacity pricing policies have led UBS to raise its 2026-2035 energy storage demand forecast by 30-53%. The share of energy storage in lithium demand will jump from 8% in 2020 to 42% in 2035, becoming a major driver of lithium consumption.

Leverage Funds: Net Purchases of These Stocks

Data from Eastmoney Choice shows that as of February 11, leveraged funds have been actively buying a batch of lithium mining concept stocks this year. Salt Lake Shares ranks first, with net financing purchases exceeding 1 billion yuan; CATL ranks second, with net purchases over 600 million yuan.

Other stocks such as Zhongkuang Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, Western Mining, Tibet Everest, EVE Energy, Yuntu Holdings, and Dongyangguang have net financing amounts ranging from 600 million to 100 million yuan.

Institutions: The Lithium Sector Is Expected to Rise Strongly This Year

However, it is worth noting that UBS’s optimistic forecasts are somewhat upbeat, and some institutions are more cautious but still generally positive about future lithium prices.

Guosheng Securities believes that lithium supply and demand are expected to reach a tight balance in 2026, with a genuine shortage only arriving in 2027. The current lithium sector has completed the “clearing expectation” stage, and by 2026, the rights and interests side may see “realization,” with the sector expected to rise strongly.

Zhongtai Securities’ research report states that by 2026, the overall supply and demand of core lithium battery materials will improve, but with differentiated trends. The supply-demand pattern of lithium hexafluorophosphate and separators will clearly improve (the price inflection point for the latter will gradually become clear); lithium iron phosphate, iron phosphate, and PVDF for lithium batteries are in a bottoming and mild recovery phase; upstream phosphate mines are expected to continue their overall prosperity, with potential structural price increases.

Huaxi Securities believes that on the demand side, lithium material demand shows strong momentum. The power battery sector benefits from the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in both commercial and passenger markets. The energy storage market continues to maintain a tight supply-demand pattern, with ongoing tight supply supporting lithium carbonate consumption. Overall, the expectation of inventory reduction driven by demand will provide solid support for price bottoms, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short term.

(Article source: Eastmoney Research Center)