Sound the rally call

Tomorrow is the second-to-last trading day before the holiday. As long as a stock has a logical basis, it should remain on your watchlist. Perhaps it’s still a good time to increase your attention because tomorrow is the last day before funds need to exit before the holiday; otherwise, they will be locked in the day after tomorrow. Therefore, the key strategy for tomorrow is to make good use of the logical targets you hold, not to reduce your focus but to increase it. The emphasis here is on stocks with a logical basis. [Taogu Ba]

If the stocks you hold tomorrow are aligned with current or expected hot topics, then these directions are more logical because the capital volume here will be much larger. Many funds will be exchanging chips in this area. First, since the holiday period is slightly longer, there may be some new changes during this holiday, so cautious funds will exit in batches. This is one of the reasons why many stocks have been showing very complex movements recently. Such operations can also hurt market sentiment, so the trend itself reflects the attitude of these funds. Most of these cautious funds are large-scale, and definitely not a few insignificant funds that can be ignored. Their impact on the market is significant—rising then falling, very obvious in many targets.

Based on the above judgment, we can generally determine the operational direction at this time. These funds are likely to be swing or medium-term funds, aiming to achieve their goals within the annual cycle, and they are very concerned about market volatility. Therefore, their exit is inevitable, but these funds are probably not retail investors. The attitude of holiday funds has been discussed many times before, and this time is no exception. Looking back at past holidays, whether in 2024 or 2025, including Spring Festival, May Day, National Day, and New Year’s, the overall sentiment has been quite positive. Looking further back, the pattern is similar. The reasoning has been explained before.

First, during holidays, market main forces generally don’t want everyone to have a sad holiday, haha, because the logic is simple: the main forces represent the will of the village. Holidays are festive times. If during the holidays everyone is just complaining about the big A, it’s not appropriate. When all stockholders nationwide are crying, it creates a transmission effect. So, a correction at this time is unlikely. Key points are: holidays are times for villagers and friends to gather. If everyone is complaining, it gives a negative impression of the big A. If everyone says they can get rich, then more funds might flow into the market later, which explains why there usually isn’t a big drop before or after the holiday. That’s just one aspect.

Second, if everyone is losing money, the so-called holiday economy will be ruined. The will of the villagers will be reflected by the main forces. If the main forces ruin the holiday economy, that’s a major responsibility issue. So, it’s likely they will give out some red envelopes, allowing people to gather, travel, shop, drink, and promote. These are all things the main forces need to consider.

Third, a crucial point is the pre-holiday volatility. Distributing red envelopes in the two days before and after can help unsteady funds exit, making it easier to push prices higher during the holiday. Funds that miss out can chase after the holiday, creating a lift for many targets. If the scale is large, this becomes even more important—another opportunity for a rally, which seems quite likely this year.

Looking back at past timelines, the previous years’ pre-holiday periods were mostly downtrends. This year, from New Year’s to the Lunar New Year, targets that doubled are almost endless. Just look at how January last year went—only Meibang gave a doubling opportunity, with little else notable. The year before, that period was almost a time of despair. So, this year’s market should be one of the best in recent times. If you don’t see a doubling during this period, it’s probably a matter of your own skill. Earning less is unqualified, so don’t blame the market. The market has been very good this year. If you think it’s not, then it’s time to use the holiday for self-improvement.

Regarding recent operations, tomorrow will likely follow the “Dragon and Tiger List” approach. Many will notice that the trading there is densely packed with operation markers. For retail investors, that might seem exaggerated—after all, capital is limited. But most will operate in batches, meaning tomorrow’s trades should focus on logical targets for continuous trading. Overall, the main forces will likely still be cautious, with some stocks diverging or converging, some being suppressed heavily, but after tomorrow, the bearish momentum will mostly be gone. The day after tomorrow could be a rainbow after the storm, so don’t get caught out tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s situation is complex because many main forces have different ideas—some are at high levels, some at low levels, and their operational approaches vary greatly. Those at low levels might not care much, while those at high levels are more nervous. If there are red envelopes during the holiday, the main forces will prefer these funds to exit at low levels. If they don’t exit, they might be pulled out at high levels, making it easier to push higher after the holiday. For targets at high levels, the main forces’ strategies are more complicated, with no unified answer. Some are nearly done running, so anything goes; others plan to push again at high levels, with more funds available after the holiday, making a run-up easier. So, there’s no definitive answer, but generally, after tomorrow, the market is likely to turn bullish, and the first day of the new year should also be positive. Even the worst case might be a high open.

Today’s index is 4131.99, with a high of 4190. If the main forces want to surpass the previous high, they will need to push the market past 4190 after the holiday. This previous high is well-supported and is a fundamental part of the market’s current logic for this rally. If they don’t have this plan, it’s probably an unqualified main force. Is that possible? I think not—only a matter of timing. Whether it continues after the holiday or starts before depends on the main forces’ attitude. How it unfolds isn’t crucial; the overall direction remains unchanged.

Regarding $Tefa Information (sz000070)$ mentioned yesterday, it hit the limit again today, but it was a one-word board today. This might be holding back a big move. It has many logical reasons, and Trump’s recent messages also add support. Let’s see what Trump posts during the holiday, haha.

That’s all for today. Please like, comment, and tip Cui Bo. Thanks to @Kongshan Bujianshuo, @Peixian Citizen, @Sky Flying, @ler0830, @Miguo Duoduo, @Kkkkkkkk8, @Tingmao, @Did You Drink Coffee Today, @His Yang. Thanks!