The trough and frontal system number 30 will bring rain, extreme cold, and strong winds to more than 20 states in Mexico on January 22.

Meteorological authorities in Mexico, through the National Water Commission (Conagua) and its National Meteorological Service (SMN), issued a detailed analysis of the atmospheric conditions impacting the country on Thursday, January 22. The trough, accompanied by frontal system number 30, will cause multiple effects in more than twenty Mexican states. These weather phenomena will bring significant rainfall, sharp temperature drops, and strong wind gusts in various regions.

The combination of the trough with the influx of a moist air mass, favored by an atmospheric river, will create a complex weather scenario across the national territory. This atmospheric river will transport humidity from the ocean to the continent, intensifying atmospheric instability conditions.

Trough and moisture influx: intense rainfall in the west, center, and south

Conagua and SMN’s analysis forecasts heavy showers with localized intense rainfall in Campeche and Quintana Roo, while periods of showers are expected in Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Veracruz (Olmeca), Chiapas, Tabasco, and Yucatán. The trough will exert its greatest influence over these areas, channeling moisture from the western regions toward the center and south of the country.

Additionally, scattered rains are forecasted in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, Puebla, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Morelos, and Michoacán. Although less intense, these precipitations will contribute to a widespread water impact affecting almost the entire country.

Sub-zero temperatures in the mountain ranges: prediction of extreme cold

The temperature drop will be especially severe in the mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca, where temperatures will range between 0 and -5 degrees Celsius. During the early morning hours of Thursday, cold conditions will also affect the mountain ranges of Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Michoacán, Querétaro, Mexico City, and Morelos, with variations between 0 and 5 degrees Celsius.

This very cold environment will persist both during the morning and nighttime hours, accompanied by fog banks that will particularly affect the Northern Plateau, the Central Plateau, and the Valley of Mexico, limiting visibility on roads and in elevated areas.

Heat waves in the south: extreme highs between 35 and 40 degrees

Paradoxically, while the north experiences freezing conditions, meteorological authorities record extremely high temperatures in areas of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Morelos, and Puebla, with maximums ranging from 35 to 40 degrees Celsius. In Sinaloa, Nayarit, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo, moderate heat conditions are expected, with temperatures between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius.

This thermal dichotomy reflects the complexity of the meteorological system affecting Mexico, with the trough channeling cold air in the north while the south remains under the influence of tropical warm air.

Strong wind gusts in the north: speeds up to 60 kilometers per hour

To complete the impact overview, intense wind gusts of up to 60 kilometers per hour are forecasted in Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas. These wind speeds, associated with the trough and frontal system, pose a risk to structures, trees, and outdoor activities in these northern Mexican states.