After the non-farm payrolls report, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in March increased to 94%

CycleProphet · 2026-02-11T16:32:39+00:00

According to CME "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March has decreased to 6.0%, while the probability of holding rates steady has increased to 94.0%. The probability of a rate cut by April is 18.8%, with a steady rate at 80.4%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 49.4%.

CycleProphet

2026-02-11 16:32:39

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, February 11 — According to CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 6.0% (before announcement: 21.7%), and the probability of holding rates steady is 94.0% (before announcement: 78.3%).

The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by April is 18.8% (before announcement: 35.7%), and the probability of holding rates steady is 80.4% (before announcement: 58.9%). The probability of a total cut of 50 basis points is 0.9% (before announcement: 5.4%).

By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 49.4% (before announcement: 49%). (Jin10 Data)

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