Drought and uneven rainfall threaten grain yields in the 2025/26 season

While some urban analysts continue to project a “super bumper crop” for 2025/26, the reality on the ground shows a much more complex picture. Field data reveal that we are heading toward a simply good harvest, marked by deep territorial disparities. In many areas, projected yields for corn and soybeans are below their actual potential, and international prices are insufficient to compensate for the losses caused by the drought recorded in December and January.

Extreme heterogeneity in the core zone: between robust crops and affected plantations

In the heart of the agricultural region, most early-planted corn is nearing the end of its vegetative cycle, with the milk line between half and three-quarters of the grain, thus completing the filling stage. However, this description creates a false impression of uniformity.

According to surveys by agricultural technicians in places like Rufino, there is a marked duality in the terrain. On one side, there are lots in excellent condition, benefited by timely showers or by production systems designed for these climatic conditions, with sufficient fallow periods and low planting density. Just a few kilometers away, the situation is radically different: crops severely compromised by the prolonged drought show minimal yield prospects, unable to cover production costs.

The critical challenge of late-planted corn: dependence on January rains

Corn planted later in the cycle is an especially vulnerable case, as its development largely depends on January rains. In places like Pergamino, these precipitations were virtually nonexistent, causing leaf rolling and halting the plants’ vegetative growth. In contrast, some areas of southern Santa Fe received recent showers, renewing hopes among producers in that region.

It is important to remember that long-cycle corn planted in early December flowers approximately 60 days after emergence, currently in the most critical stage of development. Many started this period with insufficient soil water reserves. For this reason, it is impossible to accurately estimate yields in these crops. It can only be said that those which did not receive significant rainfall during January face serious difficulties in achieving a production that covers operational costs.

Soybeans and second-crop corn: uncertainty in the final stretch without enough rain

Second-crop corn, planted in late December, depends primarily on February rains to complete its development. These crops show a marked unevenness, a direct reflection of the differences in agronomic practices implemented by various producers.

Meanwhile, soybean crops also display considerable heterogeneity, both in early and late plantings. This variability in performance highlights how management decisions and water availability determine the success or failure of the harvest in this critical campaign.

The conclusion is clear: without widespread rains in the coming weeks, the 2025/26 campaign will be characterized as a heterogeneous harvest below projections, very different from the optimistic outlook circulated months ago in macroeconomic analyses.