Global News | The three major U.S. stock indices all fell more than 1%, with a 77.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged

【U.S. Stock Indices】

On February 5th (Thursday) Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices all fell more than 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.23% to 6,798.40; the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.20% to 48,908.72; and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.59% to 22,540.59.

【U.S. Bonds】

On February 5th, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.21%, and the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury, which is most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 3.47%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular U.S. stocks, Nvidia fell 1.37%, Apple fell 0.21%, Google C fell 0.60%, Google A fell 0.54%, Microsoft dropped 4.95%, Amazon declined 4.42%, TSMC rose 1.40%, Meta increased 0.18%, Tesla fell 2.17%, Super Micro Semiconductor dropped 3.84%, and Intel declined 0.74%.

【Global Indices】

【Chinese Indices】

On February 4th, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 1.81%, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declined 1.95%, and FTSE China A50 Index rose 1.13%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

In popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) rose 0.09%, Alibaba fell 0.89%, Pinduoduo declined 0.60%, NetEase dropped 0.91%, Baidu increased 0.73%, Ctrip fell 0.07%, Li Auto rose 2.60%, Xpeng Motors increased 0.66%, and NIO rose 6.08%.

【Forex and Commodities】

【Global News】

Federal Reserve Probability of Holding Rates Steady in March at 77.3%

According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 22.7%, with a 77.3% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 36.2%, with a 58.1% chance of no change, and a 5.6% chance of a total 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 50.2%. (Cailian Press)

Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index Closes Up 0.9%

The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.9%.

OpenAI and Ginkgo Collaborate to Reduce Protein Production Costs by 40%

OpenAI announced on X platform that, in collaboration with Ginkgo Bioworks, connecting GPT-5 with automated laboratories, they built a closed-loop system that reduces protein production costs by 40%. (Cailian Press)

Elon Musk Says SpaceX Is Not Developing a Phone

Elon Musk stated that SpaceX is not developing a phone. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI CEO Announces Release of GPT-5.3-Codex

The CEO of OpenAI announced the official release of GPT-5.3-Codex. It reduces the number of tokens needed for equivalent tasks by more than half compared to 5.2-Codex, with over 25% faster token processing speed. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI Launches New Platform to Help Companies Deploy “AI Colleagues”

OpenAI is launching a new platform to help companies deploy AI agents more easily. This is part of the company’s broader effort to solidify its leadership in automating high-value work tasks. The new product, called Frontier, allows organizations to build and manage these AI tools, ensuring each agent has appropriate safety barriers and data access permissions. The goal is to simplify the deployment of AI agents—referred to as “AI colleagues” by OpenAI—and pave the way for large-scale adoption by enterprise clients. (Cailian Press)

Federal Reserve’s Bostic Says Excessively High Inflation Lasts Too Long

Federal Reserve’s Bostic commented that excessively high inflation persists for too long. (Cailian Press)

Nvidia Delays New Gaming Chip Launch Due to Storage Chip Shortage

According to two informed sources, due to the ongoing global storage chip shortage triggered by the AI boom, Nvidia will not release new gaming graphics cards this year. This will be Nvidia’s first time in thirty years not launching a new gaming GPU. (Sina Tech)

European Central Bank Maintains Three Key Interest Rates

The European Central Bank kept its three main interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, for the fifth consecutive meeting. The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. The ECB is committed to ensuring inflation stabilizes around 2% in the medium term.

UK 2-Year Government Bond Yield Slightly Falls Before Rate Decision

Ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision, the UK 2-year government bond yield slightly declined. Markets expect the Bank of England to keep rates at 3.75%. Investors will watch for any signals of potential rate cuts in the coming months. Tradeweb data shows the 2-year UK bond yield fell 2 basis points to 3.708%.