Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Hold Stocks During Holidays for Both Win Rate and Odds! Now is a great opportunity to increase your positions

CITIC Securities: No Need to Worry About Short-Term Market Fluctuations

Recently, risk appetite and liquidity in overseas markets have shown significant changes. Setting aside short-term market volatility, there are two underlying trends: First, the urgency for Europe and the US to shift from virtual to real economy is increasing, with key minerals and industrial chain security becoming priorities, and the policy proposals of the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chair also reflect an urgent need to prevent capital from overheating and to lower real economy financing rates; Second, disruptive innovation brought by AI is breaking down traditional monopolies and high-return sectors, with the software sector being the most affected recently, and industry anxiety rising sharply. Whether it’s strategic security investments or emerging infrastructure and technological investments representing the future, these mean Europe and the US will face more intense competition, while also balancing short-term shareholder interests against long-term infrastructure strategic value. These contradictions will repeatedly trigger in capital markets.

For long-term investors accustomed to earning “easy money,” the uncertainty in global financial markets will continue to rise. Risk assets heavily based on forward cash flows or capital relay expectations are more prone to sustained valuation corrections. Looking at China’s capital market, the past few years have already completed the “virtual to real” pricing shift, and are now in the process of verifying and pricing “quality and efficiency improvements.” There’s no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations. In terms of allocation, it is still recommended to maintain a foundation of “resources + traditional manufacturing,” with a focus on buying non-bank financials at low prices and increasing positions in consumer chains and real estate.

GF Securities: A New Cycle of “Fortune, Favorable Conditions, and Harmony” May Bring a Rise

Looking ahead 1–2 months, A-shares are likely to experience a period of “fortunate timing, favorable conditions, and harmony” for a rally. Historically, February and the period around the Spring Festival are the strongest phases of the “spring awakening” calendar effect. The market has high success rates and small-cap styles tend to outperform. From a top-down perspective, the 2025 annual report forecasts disclosed at the end of January show that the proportion of companies with low expectations, losses, or negative growth has hit new highs compared to 2024. As these negative earnings reports are digested and the “shoe drops,” starting in February, the market will be “lightened,” and negative fundamentals will have largely been priced in. Currently, on February 2, the Wind All-A Index fell below the 20-day moving average by 2.7% in one day. If we believe the bull trend has not ended, then based on a review of 99 past cases, the past week should be a good time to increase positions.

Therefore, despite recent market pullbacks causing some investors to worry, at around 4,000 points, it’s advisable to regain confidence, regroup, and prepare for the first upward cycle of the Year of the Horse.

Guotai Haitong: Confidence Firm, Hold Stocks Through the Festival

We remain optimistic about China’s market prospects and suggest holding stocks through the festival. First, global markets are quickly pricing in the Fed’s potential hawkish stance, but from a policy path perspective, Waller’s dovish and more certain stance on rate cuts is noteworthy. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen clarified that a strong dollar policy does not mean intervention, and overseas financial tightening expectations are marginally improving. Second, China’s government is shifting its policy focus toward domestic demand as the primary driver, which is expected to boost economic prospects and asset returns. Additionally, the CSRC recently emphasized “fully consolidating the steady and improving momentum of the capital market,” and A-share listed companies are experiencing a buyback boom. We believe China’s stock market will gradually stabilize and enter a spring rally, making now a good time to increase holdings.

Emerging technology remains the main theme, but don’t forget that value also has its spring. In terms of domestic demand value, recommended sectors include consumer services, food and beverages, and aviation, alongside chemicals, real estate, and building materials. For emerging tech, focus on Hong Kong-listed internet, media, computing, robotics, electronics, and military industries, as well as energy storage and power grid manufacturing for overseas expansion. In large finance, focus on securities firms, insurance, and banks.

Industrial Securities: Holding Stocks Through the Festival Combines High Success Rate and Good Odds

The recent global asset resonance and adjustment are mainly about digesting sentiment through narratives, rather than fundamental or policy changes. As the previous adjustment releases some risks, the current narrative shifts’ impact on market sentiment is gradually passing. With more catalysts and the “Spring Festival effect,” conditions are favorable for market recovery, making holding stocks through the festival both a high success rate and good odds. It’s advisable to gradually shift from defensive thinking to focusing on the Spring Festival rally.

In terms of relative success rate, after the festival, technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains are clearly favored. Among these, based on recent gains and sector prosperity, pay attention to three clues: TMT—U.S. tech stocks stabilizing and rebounding, especially AI hardware impacted by overseas factors (North American computing power chain, domestic semiconductor industry); high-end manufacturing—new energy (batteries, energy storage, power grids, photovoltaics), innovative drugs; and price-increase chains—domestic-led recovery in chemicals, building materials, and steel.

Upcoming industry-level catalysts, combined with a window of macroeconomic gaps and post-holiday risk appetite, will support thematic plays. Recently, most themes have cooled somewhat; AI applications (computers, media, humanoid robots) are approaching dense catalysts, and current market participation is at a reasonable level, warranting increased attention.

CICC: Post-Holiday Index Expected to Outperform Pre-Holiday

Recently, both domestic and overseas tech stocks have declined, affected by Waller’s transaction liquidity impact and the lack of new catalysts for AI technology in the short term. The new tools released by Anthropic have sparked concerns about the disruption of traditional software business models. We believe Hong Kong stocks, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index, which have been hit hardest, now have valuation appeal. Once the impact of Waller’s transaction subsides or new AI industry narratives emerge as catalysts, the Hang Seng Tech Index could see a rebound.

Overall, the market is expected to be volatile in February, with post-holiday performance likely better than pre-holiday. The main focus will shift from previously rising sectors like energy and consumer staples to sectors benefiting from major projects in the “14th Five-Year Plan,” such as construction materials. Sector rotation may accelerate, becoming a key feature of February.

Guojin Securities: China Asset Revaluation Set to Accelerate

Amid frequent risk events, global major assets are entering a “Risk-off” mode. Behind the high rotation in equity markets is the end of the “early move” phase of global AI industry cycles driven by capital. The high rotation in A-shares is not based on internal-external demand conflicts but on the expectation of coordinated recovery. Who will win in tech remains complex, but a simple trend is emerging: the recovery of overseas manufacturing is strengthening, and the core contradiction in AI investment has shifted to infrastructure represented by energy. The revaluation of global physical assets that cannot be disrupted by AI has quietly begun. As export companies’ funds flow back, internal and external demand are starting to resonate, setting the stage for China’s asset revaluation.

Specific allocation suggestions include: first, shifting the revaluation logic of physical assets from liquidity and dollar credit to low inventory and demand stabilization—crude oil, shipping, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, rare earths; second, China’s export chain with global comparative advantage and at cyclical lows—power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, wafer manufacturing, and domestically bottoming sectors like petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, and titanium dioxide; third, capturing the rebound in consumption driven by capital inflows, easing of balance sheet shrinkage, and inbound personnel—airlines, duty-free, hotels, food and beverages; fourth, benefiting from market expansion and the bottoming of long-term asset returns—non-bank financials.

CITIC Construction Investment: Limited External Impact, Focus on Cyclical Layout

Recently, the spring rally in A-shares has shown a phased correction, mainly driven by internal factors and external catalysts. Internal reasons include proactive cooling measures and broad-based ETF sell-offs; external factors involve political actions by Trump, Fed chair changes, Iran geopolitical conflicts, and the impact of Anthropic’s new tools causing declines in global tech stocks. Currently, external shocks have not caused substantial damage to China’s industrial fundamentals, and the cooling phase has largely ended. Market sentiment has been fully released, and the correction is adequate. The spring rally after the Spring Festival is expected to continue, so holding stocks through the festival is advisable.

For future sector allocation, focus on AI computing power, chemicals, electrical equipment, and energy storage; thematic investments can rely on local government policies and anticipate potential catalysts from the upcoming National People’s Congress.

Western Securities: Steady Preparation for Post-Holiday “Red Envelope” Market

Recently, overseas and domestic AI-related expectations have caused short-term pressure on China-US tech sectors. However, since the US stock market rebounded on February 6, domestic sectors are also expected to recover. Historical experience shows that during long holidays, overseas uncertainties and increased cash withdrawal demand tend to shrink market transactions before the festival, with financing balances declining; after the holiday, funds typically flow back, and risk appetite improves significantly.

It is recommended to steadily prepare for the “red envelope” rally after the festival. Market styles may rotate quickly before the holiday, with tech sectors like TMT showing stronger resilience afterward.

CICC: Market Likely to Remain Range-Bound

Recent market behavior aligns with typical pre-holiday style shifts. Before the 2026 Spring Festival, the market exhibited “pre-holiday risk aversion,” with declining volumes indicating cautious sentiment. Funds withdrew from high-valuation tech and cyclical sectors, shifting toward value and consumer sectors. Sector rotation saw banks and food & beverages outperforming, while previously strong sectors like computing hardware and non-ferrous metals corrected sharply.

Since the “spring awakening” started early, growth styles in January have been realized, and further “pre-holiday excitement” remains to be seen. External uncertainties continue to cause volatility in global equity markets. The market generally expects a “stability-seeking” style before the festival, with a potential style shift after the holiday (around the Two Sessions).

Pre-holiday sector rotation favors dividends, banks, and consumer sectors with low volatility and high dividends. The market may remain range-bound, with balanced allocations recommended. After the festival, as policies open and risk appetite recovers, focus may shift back to growth sectors with industry catalysts and steady earnings, such as AI applications, high-end manufacturing, and new energy. The pace will be more moderate, favoring a steady “slow bull” trend.

CITIC Securities: Post-Holiday Focus on Tech Growth

Before the festival, the market remains high and volatile. Unlike the first wave driven by sentiment and liquidity, the second wave of volatility will likely be based on logic, with a higher probability after the holiday. Regarding style shifts before and after the festival, we believe that the value style will not be overwhelmingly replaced by growth immediately after the festival. As Waller’s marginal impact diminishes and overseas markets stabilize, concerns about the plunge in precious metals and the impact on overseas AI giants’ earnings due to metal prices have eased. We are more inclined to believe that after the festival, the tech growth style will make a comeback, with the “Four Kings” (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, AI applications, and power grid equipment) remaining core allocations.

(Article source: Securities Times)