Cathie Wood Opposes the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle: The Past Is Gone, A New Market Era Begins

Legendary investor Cathie Wood from ARK Invest has publicly questioned the four-year cycle model that Bitcoin has historically followed. In her view, the days of extreme volatility around 70-80% are behind us, replaced by a more mature market. The past era of give and take with sharp ups and downs no longer seems to be the law for Bitcoin.

Wood states that the current correction, around 30%, is just a small step in an increasingly mature market. The structure and behavior of investors have fundamentally changed, creating a new driving force for growth.

The Past Model No Longer Applies - Why Bitcoin Won’t Crash as It Used To

In previous cycles, Bitcoin often experienced chaos with 70-80% declines after each rally. However, that era appears to have turned the page. Wood argues that Bitcoin’s market structure has developed enough to limit downside volatility, rather than repeating extreme scenarios.

Bitcoin’s price peaked at $124,700 in Q4 2025, then recently dropped to nearly $77,777, a loss of about 38%. While notable, this figure is significantly lighter than historical cycles. Wood sees this as evidence of a transitioning market, leaving behind extreme fluctuations.

According to her, the previous bullish phase was not overly large, so the correction was correspondingly milder. This is a fundamental difference from the old model: buying and selling forces are more balanced, reflecting broader participation from large institutions.

Support Zone $80,000–$90,000: Solid Floor or Warning Sign?

Although Bitcoin fell to around $77,777, Wood defines the $80,000–$90,000 zone as a key support area, not a dangerous boundary. She expects this level to be protected by major buyers.

An 11% drop in a week has caused retail investors to panic, especially when looking back from the Q4 2025 peak of $124,700. It feels like witnessing a devastating reversal. However, Wood emphasizes that compared to the past, the market is handling risks with a more refined approach.

Bitcoin dominance remains around 55.90% as of now (February 11, 2026), indicating that capital still favors Bitcoin over altcoins. This is seen as a positive sign for maintaining prices at important support levels.

Technical Signals Diverge: Weak MACD but Oversold RSI

The current technical picture is quite contradictory, reflecting a market psychology of uncertainty. The MACD indicator has shown continuous weakening over the past four months, corresponding to a fairly steady downtrend. This often appears when selling pressure dominates in the short term.

However, the RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30), a state historically associated with trend reversals or at least technical rebounds. Combining an oversold RSI with Bitcoin dominance at 55.90% creates a scenario that has preceded strong rallies in the past.

This mechanism is simple: when selling pressure is so intense that RSI hits bottom, a natural “rebound” force tends to follow. It’s not guaranteed, but it’s a common occurrence when these two signals align.

Outlook to 2030: Bitcoin Replacing Gold in Investor Portfolios

The reason Wood isn’t overly worried about current volatility is her long-term perspective toward 2030. She believes Bitcoin will increasingly capture market share from gold as a store of value.

Since 2022, Bitcoin has risen about 360%, while gold has only increased 170%. This performance isn’t accidental—it reflects a structural trend: institutional investors are shifting capital from gold to Bitcoin, viewing it as “digital gold” with superior advantages.

Wood argues that the programmed scarcity of Bitcoin (only 21 million BTC) is a key driver. As this role gains wider recognition, the capital volume could push Bitcoin’s market cap to $16 trillion by 2030, nearly eight times its current size according to ARK’s projections.

This is a long-term scenario, not excluding multiple corrections. However, if this trend is correct, short-term dips are merely buying opportunities, not warning signals.

Signs of a Maturing Market

The deeper reason for this change lies in market structure. Previously, Bitcoin was mainly traded by retail investors, easily driven by emotions. Now, investment funds, banks, and large organizations participate, providing better liquidity and reducing price volatility.

The involvement of ARK Invest, MicroStrategy, and other tech firms has created a strong “buying foundation.” When prices fall, these players are willing to double down rather than endure the same patience as in previous cycles.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

According to Wood, Bitcoin will continue to prove that the era of wild volatility is over. The support zone of $80,000–$90,000 is likely to hold, serving as a launchpad for a new rally.

While short-term fluctuations may still occur, the long-term outlook toward 2030 is what Wood and ARK Invest believe in. Bitcoin has gradually transformed from a “high-risk, highly volatile asset” into a “long-term value preservation choice” for institutional investors.