XRP in February 2026: Is the bearish divergence fighting against the recovery?

The bearish divergence remains the central challenge for the XRP price. The token is entering the second weekend of February under significant pressure. With a current price of around $1.37, XRP is well below the highs of recent weeks. In the last 24 hours, the token lost about two percent in value, and for the entire February balance, it shows a decline of approximately 33 percent. This development follows a historical pattern: February is statistically a weak month for XRP – the average monthly return is minus 8.12 percent. However, this year, a more complex picture is emerging, characterized by conflicting market signals between technical weakness and institutional buying interest.

Technical Weakness and Hidden Bearish Divergence as Precursors

XRP’s price structure shows a remarkably clear bearish divergence. The token has been moving in a downward channel since mid-2025 – a classic chart formation where lower highs and lower lows are bounded by parallel trendlines. This structure has consistently restrained upward movements and favored losses.

Vasily Shilov, Chief Business Development Officer at SwapSpace, emphasizes that while seasonal weakness phases play a role, they no longer suffice as the sole explanation. The real weakness lies in the technical patterns. Between October and January, XRP formed a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – the indicator measuring momentum – created a higher high. This divergence between price and momentum indicator is characteristic of a hidden bearish divergence and signals waning upward momentum.

The warning sign had concrete consequences in early January: the price dropped nearly 30 percent. However, a new technical pattern is currently emerging. Between mid-October and the end of January, a new low was formed, while the RSI simultaneously attempts to form a higher low. This is the basis of a bullish divergence – the opposite of the bearish signal – which could indicate the end of the downtrend.

For this positive signal to be valid, two conditions must be met: First, the next two-day candle must close above $1.71. Second, the RSI must not fall below 32.83 points. If both conditions are met, downward momentum would significantly weaken, increasing the chances of a recovery. If not, the bearish channel will maintain control over the price movement.

Conflicting Signals: Whales Buying Despite Falling Prices

While the technical structure signals weakness, other data sources tell a different story. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) – an indicator that captures buying pressure from large wallets and institutional investors – showed a notable upward movement between January and the end of the month. Particularly revealing: this increase occurred while the price was falling. Such a bullish divergence suggests that established investors are using the price declines to accumulate.

ETF data reinforce this trend. Although January was marked by significant outflows on January 21 – likely due to general market uncertainty – flows turned positive toward the end of the month. The green bars at month’s end indicate a revival of institutional interest. Since the launch of XRP spot ETFs in November, these products have accumulated over $1.3 billion in inflows and have not experienced a single month of net outflows.

Shilov interprets this development as a reaction to overall economic uncertainty. With pressure on the broader market, many investors have shifted their funds into “safe havens” like gold and silver. Demand for XRP itself is less affected by this than overall market sentiment. However, stock exchange data raise questions that cast doubt on this optimistic interpretation: the balance of XRP exchange flows has risen sharply since January 17 – from minus $7.64 million to plus $3.78 million. A particularly noticeable pattern emerged: on three consecutive days (January 25, 27, and 29), inflows spiked massively. An identical pattern was observed earlier in January – and at that time, it was followed by an 18 percent price drop.

Whale Behavior: Tactical Preparation Rather Than Clear Commitment

Large investors holding over a billion XRP provide deeper insights. Since the beginning of the year – coinciding with the start of the price correction – these whales have been steadily adding to their holdings. Their balances increased from 23.35 billion to 23.49 billion XRP. This shows that despite falling prices, significant capital is still being invested in XRP.

Interestingly, the timing differs from previous behavior. Historically, these large investors waited until the end of February to build positions. This time, the buildup is happening much earlier. While this reduces the likelihood of a dramatic price crash, it does not make smaller pullbacks unlikely.

Shilov warns against too much optimism. The observed patterns resemble more a tactical buildup than a fundamental commitment. The signals are contradictory – which explains why XRP only lost about five percent in January despite some activity, instead of the more painful 15 percent drop seen in December.

Critical Levels: Where the Recovery Will Be Decided

The current price structure focuses on a few critical points. The zone between $1.71 and $1.69 is the first line of defense. If XRP closes below this level on two consecutive days, this support will be broken, and a more significant decline could follow. The next support zone is at $1.46. A sustained stay below this level could trigger a further slide to $1.24 – a scenario that becomes more likely if exchange outflows persist and ETF demand does not increase significantly.

On the upside, the key resistance zone is at $1.97. A confirmed breakout above this level – based on two daily closes – would signal that buyers are regaining control. If this breakout occurs, a move toward $2.41 could open up, where multiple Fibonacci levels and historical resistance lines converge.

Shilov identifies the strongest bullish scenario: if ETF inflows return in quality and consistency comparable to November, it could trigger a sustained breakout. The immediate battleground, however, remains between the $1.69 support and the $1.97 resistance. Which of these levels is broken first will likely determine the trend for the rest of February and beyond.