Major sign from Cathie Wood: The 4-year Bitcoin cycle may have changed

The biggest sign indicating that Bitcoin is entering a new phase comes from Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, who observes that the traditional four-year cycle pattern no longer functions as it used to. Currently, with Bitcoin at $67.41K, down 6.95% over the past week, Wood considers this correction relatively mild and possibly nearing completion. This view emerges despite many retail investors remaining concerned due to recent volatility, but Wood argues that the Bitcoin market structure is demonstrating greater maturity, with the $80,000–$90,000 range serving as a key support rather than a risk signal.

Signs of Weakening in the Traditional Cycle Model

Cathie Wood suggests that the four-year cycle of sharp rises followed by deep crashes may no longer apply with the same intensity. She notes that this pattern is being challenged by the fact that the current decline is relatively slow and not as severe as previous cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced 70%–80% drops in prior cycles, but this time it has only fallen about 30% from its all-time high near $126K.

According to Wood, this indicates that the previous bull run “was not too large by Bitcoin standards,” so the correction phase could be shorter and conclude sooner. She sees this as clear evidence that market behavior is changing, rather than repeating deep corrections. In an interview with CNBC, Wood emphasized that Bitcoin has passed most of its downward cycle, and the market’s reaction to recent volatility shows signs of rational risk assessment rather than panic and loss of control like in past cycles.

The $80K–$90K Range: A Key Support Zone Amidst Volatility

A clear support signal from Wood is the $80,000–$90,000 zone, which she considers a “stronger price floor” rather than a danger zone. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen to $67.41K, down 1.70% in 24 hours and 6.95% over the week, causing some concern among traders as they see the decline from the nearly $126K peak—about 47% drop in a few months.

However, Wood interprets this as a “normal” correction compared to previous cycles, where Bitcoin often experienced much deeper declines. She believes the difference between the current drop and past cycles reflects a maturing market, with increased institutional participation leading to diminishing downside volatility over time. She expects the $80K–$90K range to hold and potentially serve as a launchpad for a recovery.

Technical Indicators: When MACD, RSI, and Bitcoin Dominance Send Contradictory Signals

Current technical indicators are sending mixed signals, reflecting market discord. On the negative side, momentum indicators like MACD show weakening, indicating a relatively steady downtrend over the past four months. This often correlates with defensive sentiment and a lack of short-term buying momentum.

On the positive side, RSI has entered oversold territory—a historically significant sign that buying and selling pressures are imbalanced, leaning toward overselling. Past instances of oversold RSI have often coincided with trend reversals or at least technical rebounds. While this does not guarantee a bottom has formed, it suggests that selling pressure may be nearing an overextended point.

Additionally, Bitcoin Dominance (the ratio of Bitcoin’s market cap to the entire crypto market) remains near 60%, indicating that capital is flowing out of altcoins back into Bitcoin. The combination of high dominance and oversold RSI has historically preceded notable recoveries. Wood views this as a positive sign for the next phase, though not a certainty.

Long-Term Indicators: Bitcoin Gradually Replacing Gold as a Store of Value

Focusing on the 2030 outlook, Wood believes the most significant indicator of Bitcoin’s growth is its potential to compete with traditional gold. She argues that Bitcoin is gaining market share in trust as a store of value, and its built-in scarcity is a long-term driver of market capitalization growth.

Comparing performance since 2022, the signs are clear: Bitcoin has increased approximately 360%, while gold has risen about 170%. This disparity is not an isolated anomaly but reflects a sustained trend, unaffected by short-term price swings. From ARK Invest’s perspective, this evidence supports the thesis that Bitcoin is expanding its role in long-term investor portfolios.

Wood concludes that Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity could push its total network value to $16 trillion by 2030—nearly eight times its current size. This is a long-term scenario, allowing for corrections along the way, but she believes the signs of Bitcoin replacing traditional assets will become increasingly evident over time.

Key Market Observations

Cathie Wood notes that the four-year cycle model may be weakening because the current decline is much milder than previous cycles. The $80,000–$90,000 support zone is viewed as a crucial “price floor,” more of a foundation than a danger zone. MACD indicates weakening momentum over recent months, but RSI entering oversold territory is historically associated with potential reversals.

Bitcoin’s dominance near 60% suggests capital is favoring Bitcoin over altcoins. Historically, high dominance combined with oversold RSI has preceded strong rebounds or rallies. Wood compares Bitcoin to gold in 2030, emphasizing that Bitcoin is becoming a more formidable competitor to gold as a store of value, highlighting that long-term trends are more important than short-term volatility.