Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 12, 2026

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Market Overview

The U.S. January Non-Farm Payroll Report Was Strong Overall, Pressing Down Expectations for Rate Cuts, Traders Delay the First Rate Cut from June to July, U.S. Treasuries Decline.

U.S. stocks opened higher but then gave back gains due to weakness in large tech stocks, with the three major indices closing slightly lower. Concerns about AI disruption are still fermenting; software stock ETFs fell 2.6%, and real estate service stocks were also sold off due to AI worries, with CBRE Group and Jones Lang LaSalle plunging 12%.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield up 6.4 basis points and the 10-year yield up about 3 basis points.

The dollar experienced significant intraday fluctuations, ending slightly higher by 0.08%. The yen continued its three-day rally, appreciating over 1% at one point during the day.

Cryptocurrencies remained weak. Bitcoin fell 1.2%, Ethereum dropped over 2%.

Spot gold oscillated higher by 1.3%, silver surged then pulled back but still gained over 4%. Trump privately considers withdrawing from the USMCA, and WTI crude oil rose 1%.

During Asian trading hours, the Shanghai Composite index rose for the seventh consecutive day, the ChiNext fell 1%, and trading volume across the two markets was less than 2 trillion yuan. Glass fiber concept stocks exploded, with Hengke Index up nearly 1% and Xiaomi up over 4%.

Top News

China

Li Qiang: Fully promote artificial intelligence technological innovation, industrial development, and empowering applications, cultivating and expanding new productive forces.

State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) urges central enterprises to actively expand effective investments in computing power.

China’s January CPI year-over-year increase slowed to 0.2%, PPI decline narrowed to 1.4%.

DeepSeek is testing a new generation model in grayscale.

Zhispur released the new flagship model GLM-5, focusing on improving programming and intelligent agent capabilities.

Another milestone in manned lunar landing: Long March 10 and the Mengzhou spacecraft completed their first flight test mission successfully.

Overseas

U.S. January non-farm payroll added 130,000 jobs, the largest increase since April last year, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, and an upward revision of 862,000 jobs for the year. Wall Street expects the first rate cut to be delayed until July; “New Federal Reserve Communications” predicts a longer pause.

U.S. budget deficit for the first four months of fiscal year 2026 shrank by 17%, with tariffs revenue soaring. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Trump’s fiscal path is unsustainable; the deficit forecast for the next decade increased by $1.4 trillion.

Oil prices rose over 2% intraday; reports suggest Trump is privately considering withdrawing from USMCA.

Trump faces new test: Republican leaders failed to prevent the House from voting on whether to overturn tariffs on Canada.

Trump says reaching an agreement with Iran is his “first choice”; Iran’s top leader’s advisor: US is becoming more rational.

Apple’s new Siri release may be delayed again, reportedly due to testing issues; some features may be launched as late as September.

Market Close

US and European Stocks: S&P 500 slightly down, at 6941.47 points. Dow Jones down 0.13%, at 50,121.40 points. Nasdaq down 0.16%, at 23,066.467 points. Europe’s STOXX 600 index rose 0.10%, to 621.58 points.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4131.98, up 0.09%. Shenzhen Component at 14,160.93, down 0.35%. ChiNext at 3,284.74, down 1.08%.

Bond Market: U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield rose 2.77 basis points to 4.1704%. 2-year Treasury yield up 5.79 basis points to 3.5099%.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures up 1.48%, at $5,105.43 per ounce. COMEX silver futures up 4.42%, at $83.935 per ounce. WTI March crude rose 1.05%, at $64.63 per barrel. Brent April crude up 0.87%, at $69.40 per barrel.

Top News Details

Global Highlights

China

Li Qiang: Fully promote artificial intelligence technological innovation, industrial development, and empowering applications, cultivating and expanding new productive forces. According to Xinhua News Agency, Li Qiang emphasized the need to deeply understand and grasp the development trend of AI, promote breakthroughs across the entire AI chain, and implement AI across all scenarios to unlock greater development potential. Continue strengthening the technological foundation, promote algorithm innovation, increase high-quality data supply, enhance large model performance, and proactively explore new technologies and pathways. Vigorously promote large-scale commercial applications, stimulate AI terminal and service consumption, build pilot bases for AI applications, develop and expand the intelligent agent industry, and explore more high-value application scenarios.

SASAC urges central enterprises to actively expand effective investments in computing power. Recently, SASAC proposed that central enterprises should strengthen investment guidance, actively expand effective investments in computing power, promote coordinated development of “computing power + electricity,” improve data governance across the entire chain, and continuously solidify the foundation of the AI industry.

China’s January CPI YoY growth slowed to 0.2%, PPI decline narrowed to 1.4%. The January CPI increased by 0.8% YoY last year, but this year’s increase slowed to 0.2%, mainly due to two reasons: first, the impact of the Chinese New Year shift; last January was the Chinese New Year month, with significant increases in food and some service prices, leading to a high base last year and a significant YoY slowdown this month. Second, international oil price fluctuations caused energy prices to fall more sharply, with energy prices down 5.0% in January. The PPI decline narrowed to 1.4%.

• Huatai Securities notes that the CPI slowdown to 0.2% in January was mainly due to the offset effect of the holiday shift, but core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, reaching a six-month high, indicating mild recovery in domestic demand. The narrowing of PPI decline and its acceleration MoM, driven by rising prices of non-ferrous metals and anti-inflation efforts, suggest that with supply-demand optimization and external demand recovery, inflation’s median level may gradually rise, and core inflation is entering a good recovery phase.

DeepSeek’s new model is here? DeepSeek is testing a new generation model in grayscale. Some users, upon opening the app, received prompts to update to a new version. The new version’s context length has expanded from 128K to 1M, and the knowledge base is updated to May 2025. The official app shows it may be the final grayscale version before the official launch of V4. Nomura Securities reports that the core value of V4 lies in driving AI application commercialization through underlying architecture innovation, rather than disrupting the existing AI value chain.

• Will we see it during the Spring Festival? DeepSeek’s next-generation model: “cost-effective” innovative architecture to help China break through bottlenecks in “computing chips and memory.” Nomura Securities believes that the upcoming new large model V4 from DeepSeek may further reduce training and inference costs through innovative architectures mHC and Engram, accelerating the innovation cycle of China’s AI value chain. It is also expected to help global large language model and AI application companies accelerate commercialization, alleviating the increasing capital expenditure pressures.

Zhispur released the new flagship model GLM-5, focusing on improving programming and intelligent agent capabilities. On February 11, Zhispur launched the new flagship model GLM-5, with parameters expanded to 744 billion, pre-training data reaching 28.5 trillion tokens, integrating DeepSeek’s sparse attention mechanism. Internal evaluations show performance on programming tasks improved over 20% compared to the previous generation, approaching Claude Opus 4.5 in real experience; it achieved first place in three open-source agent evaluations including BrowseComp, with asynchronous reinforcement learning as a core breakthrough.

Another milestone in manned lunar exploration: Long March 10 and the Mengzhou spacecraft completed their first flight test mission successfully. The Long March 10 launch vehicle and Mengzhou crewed spacecraft recently completed their maximum dynamic pressure escape flight test, marking a phased breakthrough in China’s manned lunar exploration project. The test verified the spacecraft’s escape capability under extreme conditions and validated the sea recovery capability of the rocket’s first stage and reentry capsule. Planned for 2026 is the unmanned “Mengzhou-1” flight test and docking with the space station, with the goal of achieving China’s first lunar landing before 2030.

Overseas

U.S. January non-farm payroll added 130,000 jobs, the largest increase since April last year, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, and an upward revision of 862,000 jobs for the year. The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, the largest since April 2025, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.3%, and hourly wages increased 0.4% MoM, both stronger than expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the total non-farm employment for the year ending March 2025 by 898,000. Healthcare added jobs, manufacturing turned positive, and temporary employment continued to shrink. Traders have delayed their rate cut bets from June to July. The Fed faces a conflicting picture of strong monthly data and historical revisions showing weakness.

• Wall Street expects the first rate cut to be delayed until July; “New Federal Reserve Communications” predicts a longer pause. The January non-farm payroll report may reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see stance, making it harder for Fed officials to justify further rate cuts due to a softening labor market, providing more ammunition for hawks worried about inflation. Strong employment data reduce the need for rate cuts before mid-year but do not entirely rule out cuts later this year. Several institutions still expect two rate cuts this year, but the timing has been pushed to the second half.

U.S. budget deficit for the first four months of FY2026 shrank by 17%, with tariffs revenue soaring. Tariffs revenue helped the U.S. government reduce the budget deficit by 17% in the first four months of this fiscal year, highlighting the importance of the Supreme Court’s ruling on whether President Trump has the authority to implement most of his tariff actions.

• CBO: Trump’s fiscal path is unsustainable; deficit forecast for the next decade increased by $1.4 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned again that the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, raising the deficit forecast over the next ten years by $1.4 trillion, partly due to Trump’s 2025 tax law and immigration policies. From 2026 to 2036, annual deficits are expected to reach or exceed 5.6% of GDP, setting a record, with deficits remaining at such high levels for more than five consecutive years.

Oil prices surged over 2% intraday; reports suggest Trump is privately considering withdrawing from USMCA. According to media reports, Trump is privately evaluating the possibility of withdrawing from USMCA, injecting uncertainty into the July 1 review. Market concerns about North American energy trade prospects increased, with oil prices rising over 2%. Negotiations are currently divided: Mexico is pragmatic, Canada is tricky. This move may be aimed at forcing concessions from Canada and Mexico on immigration, drug control, and other issues. If the agreement collapses, tariffs could be reintroduced, inflation could rise, and mid-term election prospects could be affected. Analysts believe that the threat of withdrawal is more likely a bargaining chip than a final goal.

Trump faces a new test: Republican leaders failed to prevent the House from voting on whether to overturn tariffs on Canada. Due to three Republican defections, the House voted Tuesday evening to reject a proposal to delay the tariff vote until the end of July. Even if the House approves rescinding the Canada tariffs, Trump is likely to veto, making the vote more symbolic. However, the unfavorable vote, especially in an election year, will put political pressure on Trump.

Trump says reaching an agreement with Iran is his “first choice”; Iran’s top leader’s advisor: US is becoming more rational. US leaders discuss a “joint action plan” to respond to failed US-Iran negotiations. Trump stated he has told Netanyahu that reaching an agreement with Iran would be their “first choice”; if no deal is possible, they will have to wait and see. The Israeli Prime Minister was reportedly asked by Trump: the Iran deal should not have an expiration date. Iran’s foreign minister reiterated that reaching an agreement on the peaceful nuclear program is possible. Iran’s top leader’s advisor said the US is becoming more rational, while the other side seeks to provoke trouble; negotiations on the next round are ongoing.

Apple’s new Siri release may be delayed again, reportedly due to testing issues; some features may be launched as late as September. Reports indicate that Apple insisted on launching new Siri features with iOS 26.4 in March but encountered issues such as incorrect query handling, long response times, and low accuracy during testing. Apple is now considering releasing some features in a later iOS update, possibly in May or September, especially delaying the personal data functions. During trading, Apple’s stock rose over 2% but then pared gains by more than half.

Research Highlights

Morgan Stanley sharply raises Micron’s target price to $450: As long as AI demand remains strong, concerns over Chinese capacity shocks and over-investment are not issues! Morgan Stanley significantly increased Micron’s target price from $350 to $450, implying about 28.6% upside from current levels. Analysts believe that the supply shortage of memory chips has spread to every end-market, with pricing power firmly in sellers’ hands. Driven by the AI supercycle, traditional cyclical valuation frameworks are no longer applicable; Micron is at a sweet spot of profitability and valuation expansion.

Will fiber optic become the next storage? AI computing power demand is reshaping the fiber optic industry, similar to the 2025 memory chip supercycle. Guotai Haitong notes that high-end capacity is shifting toward AI data centers, squeezing supply of G.652D fiber, with prices doubling compared to last year’s procurement prices. Due to long expansion cycles and overseas “lock-in” effects, supply-demand tensions are prominent. Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that although sector valuations are high, the industry is shifting from cyclical bottom to structural prosperity through price increases and high-end product exports.

The “timing bomb” of arbitrage is ticking; yen fluctuations may signal a global asset rotation. The recent strengthening of the yen could trigger large-scale arbitrage unwinding. BCA points out that the last three yen arbitrage unwindings were driven by pressure on arbitrage assets, not by narrowing interest rate differentials, and were accompanied by soaring global volatility. The current yen appreciation is already transmitting to Nasdaq, bond volatility indices, and VIX, indicating a cross-asset volatility window is approaching.

Domestic Macro

The State Council: By 2030, a basically unified national electricity market system will be established, promoting cross-province, cross-region, and intra-provincial trading integration. The “Opinions” state that by 2030, a unified national electricity market system will be basically formed, with all types of power sources and non-subsidized users directly participating in the market. Market-based trading will account for about 70% of total electricity consumption. Inter-provincial and intra-provincial joint trading will be realized, spot markets fully operational, market rules and technical standards fully unified, market-oriented electricity prices well established, and a fair, unified market supervision system basically in place.

MSCI’s global index significantly increases inclusion of Chinese companies—passive funds to embark on a new round of “buying spree”? In the largest inclusion in three years, MSCI has added 21 Chinese stocks, with technology stocks leading the charge. This move not only opens a “buying window” for passive funds but also prompts global funds to reassess Chinese assets. As AI and innovative companies gain weight, China’s stock market is entering a new phase of capital inflow and structural transformation.

Domestic Companies/Industries

Glass fiber stocks surge to daily limit: electronics demand tight, AI computing power faces new constraints! Recently, the glass fiber sector in A-shares exploded, driven by recent price hikes in electronic fabrics. The price increases stem from booming demand driven by AI computing infrastructure, constrained by high technical barriers and high costs, leading to slow capacity expansion. As a key substrate for PCBs, the shortage of electronic fabrics is directly affecting high-end hardware supply chains like AI servers, becoming a new bottleneck for computing infrastructure development.

Zhongji Xuchuang quickly clarifies: No bypassing of intermediaries in orders; no direct orders from CSP customers to upstream laser equipment suppliers. On February 11, rumors circulated that “optical module order channels changed,” claiming CSP manufacturers bypassed Zhongji Xuchuang and other module makers, ordering directly from upstream laser equipment suppliers, then through designated assembly plants, causing stock price drops. Zhongji Xuchuang responded urgently on the platform, stating that the business model remains unchanged, with direct orders from CSP customers, and products delivered directly to them.

SMIC conference call: HBM shortage will persist, but rapid AI capacity expansion may lead to idle data centers. SMIC’s co-CEO Zhao Haijun revealed that in Q4 2025, the company experienced a “seasonally resilient” performance, with 12-inch capacity nearing full utilization. Strong demand for AI storage continues to boost high-end and mid-to-high-end orders, squeezing the mid-low-end mobile market. He also warned that companies attempting to build future data center capacity within one or two years may face underutilization, as the specific uses of these facilities are not fully planned.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: January vehicle sales down 3.2% YoY, new energy vehicle market stable, with production and sales up 2.5% and 0.1%. According to CAAM, the automotive industry operated steadily in January, with passenger vehicle sales declining and commercial vehicle sales continuing to improve. The new energy vehicle market remained stable, and exports continued to grow. Main factors include: policy adjustments on purchase tax for new energy vehicles, the transition period of local purchase subsidies, and the early release of some consumer demand in 2025.

NetEase Q4 revenue below market expectations but gaming still growing, new titles showing contribution. NetEase’s Q4 results missed expectations: adjusted EPS of 10.95 yuan, below the estimated 14.07 yuan; revenue of 27.55 billion yuan also fell short. Gaming revenue was 21.97 billion yuan, with weak growth. Management emphasized that AI has been deeply integrated into the entire game development process, becoming a “fundamental capability.” The company maintained shareholder returns, approved dividends, and completed a $2 billion share buyback, with healthy cash flow.

Overseas Macro

Balance sheet reduction—“Fed-Treasury agreement”—rate cuts, is this Wash’s “positive scheme”? Wash may reshape the Fed’s balance sheet by “shortening duration” without shrinking it. Barclays analysts suggest that to reduce market impact, the Treasury must maintain long-term debt issuance at current levels and increase short-term debt to meet Fed’s new demand (per the new agreement). Even so, this will raise the term premium on long-term bonds, potentially forcing the Fed to adopt lower interest rates as a hedge, possibly triggering unexpected rate cuts.

Congress questions “Epstein” again: US Commerce Secretary “reverses” on 2012 island visit. During a hearing, Commerce Secretary Lutnick admitted he visited Epstein’s private island with his family in 2012, contradicting previous claims of having cut ties after 2005. Despite White House support, Justice Department documents reveal ongoing business dealings, raising integrity concerns and bipartisan pressure for resignation. Trump’s team faces new personnel uncertainties.

OPEC Monthly Report: January global oil production from OPEC+ members declined sharply, maintaining demand forecasts unchanged for this year and next. Due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran, OPEC+ daily output in January fell by 439,000 barrels to 42.45 million barrels, well beyond expectations. Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field contributed over half of the decline but has now resumed production, so the supply shock may be short-term. Despite the drop, OPEC+ maintains unchanged global supply/demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025, indicating current cuts are driven by short-term factors.

The world’s largest nickel mine in Indonesia cuts quotas by 70%, LME nickel jumps intraday. Indonesia slashed the annual quota of the world’s largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, to 12 million tons, a 71% decrease from 2025’s 42 million tons. This measure caused LME nickel prices to surge over 2.6% during the day. As a major nickel producer, Indonesia is actively regulating key mineral supplies to reverse the low prices caused by capacity expansion.

Congo copper exports grew 10% last year, cobalt exports down nearly 80%. Congo’s copper exports increased nearly 10% to 3.4 million tons in 2025, solidifying its position as the second-largest copper producer globally. Chinese companies led capacity expansion, providing a buffer for the tight global market, with copper prices rising 40% and hitting new highs. In contrast, cobalt exports plummeted nearly 80% to 44,500 tons due to government bans and quotas. Copper and cobalt are co-mined, with diverging supply trajectories.

Overseas Companies

Tesla proposes adding 100 GW of solar manufacturing capacity, far exceeding US ground demand, preparing for space data centers. Morgan Stanley believes Tesla aims to build an independent energy loop. This capacity mainly serves “space data centers” and supply chain security, not just component sales. Despite hundreds of billions in capital expenditure, IRA subsidies and vertical integration are expected to generate hundreds of billions in revenue and significantly boost energy business valuation.

Global debut: Intel unveils ZAM memory prototype: 512GB per chip, half the power consumption, directly competing with HBM. ZAM’s first public appearance promises lower power, higher capacity, and wider bandwidth compared to traditional DRAM. Through vertical stacking, heat generated by each chip can be evenly conducted upward, solving long-standing thermal issues in planar stacking. The prototype is scheduled for release in 2027, with full commercialization expected by 2030.

Industry/Concepts

1. Low-Code | According to Sina Finance, China’s first national standard for low-code development platforms, “System and Software Engineering—General Technical Requirements for Low-Code Development Platforms” (GB/T46900-2025), has been officially approved and will be implemented on July 1, 2026. The standard establishes comprehensive technical specifications around core functions and performance, marking a new phase of standardized development for China’s low-code industry.

Commentary: Low-code (LCDP) refers to rapid application development with minimal or no coding. Authorities predict that 70% of enterprise applications globally will be based on low-code platforms within five years, with AI and machine learning deeply integrated to enhance intelligent recommendations, automatic code generation, and process automation, boosting platform intelligence. This tech convergence may make low-code the dominant development paradigm, accelerating the build-out of hundreds of millions of new applications.

2. Non-Ferrous Nickel | According to Hexun, Indonesia Weda Bay Nickel’s ore production quota this year is only 12 million tons, down over 70% from 42 million tons after adjustments in 2025. The joint venture partner, Eramet Group, confirmed this news. Weda Bay is the world’s largest nickel mine, jointly owned by Tsingshan, Eramet, and Indonesia’s PT Aneka Tambang.

Commentary: Prior to this capacity cut, Indonesia supplied about 65% of global nickel. Despite recent capacity expansion, nickel prices have declined over the past two years. As the largest producer, Indonesia is actively regulating supply to stabilize prices. This year, the nickel mining quota is planned at about 26 million tons, below last year’s 37.9 million tons. Following the news, LME nickel futures rose for four consecutive days, approaching $18,000 per ton.

3. Innovative Drugs | According to Xinhua, an international research team recently developed a synthetic antibody targeting a bacterial surface sugar called pseudo-aminic acid, offering a new approach to combat resistant “super bacteria.” Pseudo-aminic acid is found only on various bacteria surfaces and plays a key role in bacterial survival and pathogenicity, making it a highly specific intervention target.

Commentary: Compared to traditional antibiotics, synthetic antibodies offer high specificity, low immunogenicity, and strong designability. The global antibody drug market is growing at about 15% annually, expected to reach $445 billion in the next five years.

Today’s Top News Preview

U.S. January PPI.

U.S. initial jobless claims last week.

U.S. January existing home sales.

Earnings reports from Arista Networks and Airbnb.

Amazon’s Leo satellite launched.

IEA releases monthly oil market report.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks exist; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment is at your own risk.