US employment data release postponed again, government shutdown disrupts market expectations

The partial government shutdown in the United States has once again disrupted market expectations. In early February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the employment data originally scheduled for release on the 6th of this month would be delayed, along with the planned U.S. job vacancy report. As a result, the market has entered a critical data void period, leaving participants facing deep uncertainty.

Official Announcement: Non-Farm Employment Data Release Date Pending

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated in a release that due to the partial federal government shutdown, the scheduled U.S. employment data and related economic indicators cannot be published on time. This administrative deadlock from Washington has directly impacted the global market’s real-time understanding of the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives have indicated they will independently push forward with the approval process for a multi-agency appropriations bill. The federal government’s “technical shutdown” is expected to continue at least into the beginning of this month. Several departments, including Defense, Education, Health and Human Services, Labor, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development, have been affected in their normal operations.

Government Shutdown Normalization: Data Releases Frequently Interrupted

This is not the first time that U.S. employment data has been delayed due to a government shutdown. During the record-breaking 43-day shutdown last fall, the market experienced similar chaos — the September non-farm payroll report was delayed until November 20, and the employment data for October and November were combined and released on December 16, causing the entire release system to become long paralyzed.

Historical repetitions show that such political disruptions to economic data releases have become a systemic risk in U.S. financial markets. Each shutdown leaves a data vacuum, creating a judgment void for investors and policymakers alike.

Contradictory Labor Market: Dilemmas During Data Void Periods

Adding to the complexity, the U.S. labor market itself is full of contradictory signals, making the lack of employment data even harder to interpret. On one hand, U.S. GDP expanded at its fastest pace in two years over the past quarter, indicating strong economic growth; on the other hand, the labor market has been weak — since March, monthly job gains have averaged only 28,000, far below the 400,000 monthly hires seen during the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021-2023.

This widening “growth versus employment” gap has become more apparent recently. Major companies like Amazon and UPS have announced large-scale layoffs, raising serious doubts about the true strength of the current job market. The market had expected U.S. employment data for January to show an increase of 80,000 jobs (up from 50,000 in December), but this forecast itself faces validation challenges due to the data delay.

The Future of the U.S. Economy: Three Possible Paths of Development

In the absence of data, economists are beginning to explore possible directions for the U.S. economy. The first scenario involves a faster hiring pace that eventually aligns with the current robust economic growth; the second suggests a slowdown in growth to accommodate weak employment gains.

However, the third scenario warrants particular attention. With continuous advances in artificial intelligence and automation technologies, the U.S. economy might achieve a new growth model — maintaining high-speed growth without creating大量 jobs. This could indicate that the economic system itself is undergoing a structural transformation, and the traditional correlation between employment data and growth figures may be breaking down.

Policy Makers’ Blind Spot: Adjusting Policies Amid Uncertainty

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in last month’s meeting, maintained interest rates unchanged while noting improvements in the unemployment rate and an acceleration in economic growth. However, the delay in releasing employment data will pose new challenges for the Fed and market participants — in the absence of real-time labor market indicators, how can policymakers accurately assess the true state of the U.S. economy? This has become a new test facing Washington.

The government shutdown not only disrupts the release schedule of U.S. employment data but also plunges global markets into new dilemmas regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy.