Last Friday, risk assets violently rebounded, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average first breaking through 50,000 points. Trump directly called it the end of his term and predicted it would double again.

February 9 News: Last Friday, risk assets experienced a violent rebound, with U.S. stocks soaring across the board. The three major indices rose by at least 2%, with the Dow Jones surpassing 1200 points for the first time in history, closing above the 50,000 mark. Cryptocurrencies also surged, returning to $70,000. Gold and silver exhibited a V-shaped reversal, with silver jumping 20% from its daily low. This week, market focus will be on the U.S. CPI, as numerous software stocks report earnings. Last week’s sell-off is seen as understandable, or as Jensen Huang said, “completely unreasonable,” and investors are watching closely.

【U.S. Stock Indices】

As of last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 6,932.30 points; the Dow Jones increased 2.47% to 50,115.67 points; the Nasdaq gained 2.18% to 23,031.21 points. For the week, the Dow rose 2.50%, the Nasdaq declined 1.84%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.10%. The S&P 500 Software and Services Index plummeted 15% over more than a week, while the Dow, driven by cyclical stocks and Nvidia, closed above 50,000 for the first time in history on Friday.

Notably, amid the market rally, former President Donald Trump reemerged over the weekend, attributing the Dow’s new record to tariff policies and predicting it will soar to 100,000 points before his term ends. “Remember, Trump is right about everything! I hope the Supreme Court is paying attention.”

In response to concerns last Friday about software stocks and tech giants’ AI investments, Jensen Huang appeared again, stating that massive AI spending is “reasonable and sustainable.” He emphasized that as long as AI companies can profit from their AI investments, they will “double, double, double, and double again” their investments.

Deutsche Bank’s Head of Macro and Theme Research, Jim Reid, warned in a report that since the U.S. stock market remains mainly driven by the tech sector, ongoing weakness in the industry could pose difficulties for the indices. Reid noted, “The market can digest ongoing rotation for quite some time, even if some sectors outperform significantly, without immediately showing clear pressure at the index level. But the longer and deeper the sell-off in dominant sectors, the more difficult it becomes for the overall index to withstand the drag.”

This week, software stocks will face further tests, with several leading software companies reporting earnings, including Unity, AppLovin, Robinhood, etc. Their performance and management comments will verify whether this round of sell-off was justified. Additionally, well-known companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald’s will also release earnings. Investors will also watch for updates on AI demand from industry chain companies like Cisco and Applied Materials, which supply tools to AI giants.

On the economic front, key data such as the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI reports will be released on Wednesday and Friday. Due to the U.S. government’s brief “shutdown” last week, the release schedule has been somewhat disrupted.

In geopolitics, last Friday, U.S. and Iranian representatives held indirect talks in Oman’s capital. U.S. President Trump said the talks went “very well” and that they will meet again next week. Iran called the talks a “good start,” but no further schedule has been confirmed.

【U.S. Treasury Bonds】

Last Friday, U.S. Treasury yields retreated, with the benchmark 10-year yield closing at 4.217%, and the 2-year yield, sensitive to Fed policy, at 3.5%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular stocks, Nvidia rose 7.87%, Apple increased 0.80%, Google Class C fell 2.48%, Google Class A declined 2.53%, Microsoft gained 1.90%, Amazon dropped 5.55%, TSMC rose 5.48%, Meta fell 1.31%, Tesla increased 3.50%, Enphase Energy surged 8.28%, and Intel rose 4.87%.

In company news, Tesla is evaluating multiple options to expand its photovoltaic capacity, including increasing the Buffalo, New York plant to 10 GW and building additional factories in New York, Arizona, or Idaho.

【Global Indices】

Last Friday, in Europe, the FTSE 100 rose slightly by 0.59% to 10,370 points. France’s CAC 40 increased 0.43% to 8,274 points. Germany’s DAX gained 0.94% to 24,721 points.

In Asia, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.21% to 26,560 points. The China Enterprises Index declined 0.68% to 9,031 points. The Nikkei 225 rose slightly by 0.81% to 54,254 points.

【China Indices】

On February 6, overnight, Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 0.85%, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 3.71%, and the FTSE China A50 Index declined 0.73%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

Last Friday, among popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) fell 1.97%, Alibaba rose 3.01%, Pinduoduo increased 3.65%, NetEase gained 2.18%, Baidu rose 5.02%, Ctrip increased 3.57%, Li Auto surged 6.63%, Xpeng rose 4.98%, and NIO gained 7.23%.

【Forex and Commodities】

Last Friday, the US dollar index retreated from a two-week high, accelerating lower before the New York close, ending down 0.2% at 97.633.

Precious metals again showed a V-shaped reversal. After CME raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures for the sixth time, spot gold opened lower, touching a low of $4,655.57 per ounce, then steadily rebounded, rising over $200 from the daily low, and finally closed up 3.9% at $4,965.79 per ounce. Spot silver was more volatile, plunging nearly 10% during the session and approaching $64 per ounce, then quickly recovering, ending up 9.89% at $77.798 per ounce.

Due to Iran-U.S. indirect talks in Oman failing to significantly ease fears of military conflict, international crude oil prices remained range-bound. WTI briefly crossed $64 twice during the session but retreated each time, ending up 0.35% at $63.51 per barrel. Brent crude rose 0.81% to $68.1 per barrel.

【Highlights】

Last week’s U.S. market volatility: hedge funds “short everything,” software stocks start buying on Thursday, “brutal short squeeze” on Friday

Goldman Sachs warns that Friday’s short covering only absorbed about 20% of recent short positions. This suggests that unless short sellers double down on their bearish bets, there could be a larger rebound on Monday, not only in the most fallen parts of the market but also spreading to other sectors.

Trump boasts: achieving goals three years early, Dow to hit 100,000 by end of term

Trump credits tariff policies for the Dow’s new record and predicts it will soar to 100,000 points before his term ends. “Remember, Trump is right about everything! I hope the Supreme Court is paying attention.”

Zelensky: U.S. hopes Russia-Ukraine peace agreement by June

The U.S. is pushing for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal by June, with Ukraine accepting a new round of negotiations. Zelensky hinted that U.S. hopes to end the conflict early due to midterm elections. However, Russia subsequently launched large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s power grid. Disagreements remain on key issues like Donbas territory.

China successfully launches a reusable experimental spacecraft, paving the way for high-frequency, routine commercial space launches.

On February 7, China successfully launched a reusable experimental spacecraft, marking progress in long-term on-orbit and return technology, which will help reduce costs for space missions. Global commercial space is evolving toward high-frequency, low-cost transportation and deep space exploration.

Jensen Huang: Massive AI spending “reasonable and sustainable”

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang appeared again last Friday, stating that large-scale AI investments are “reasonable and sustainable.” He emphasized that as long as AI companies can profit from their investments, they will “double, double, double, and double again” their investments.

Tesla reportedly evaluating sites to increase photovoltaic capacity

Latest reports last Friday indicate Tesla is assessing options to expand its solar capacity, including increasing the Buffalo, NY plant to 10 GW and building additional factories in New York, Arizona, or Idaho. In a recent podcast, Elon Musk said SpaceX and Tesla are working toward an annual 100 GW solar capacity goal.

SpaceX reportedly delays Mars plans to focus on unmanned Moon landings

According to multiple insiders, SpaceX has told investors it will prioritize lunar missions and attempt to reach Mars “later.” The company is targeting March 2027 for an uncrewed Moon landing. Previously, SpaceX planned to launch five Starships to Mars by late 2026 to take advantage of the shorter Earth-Mars distance, easing travel.