CITIC Securities: Space Photovoltaic Equipment Value May Experience a Leap in Growth

CITIC Securities Research Report states that the demand for space photovoltaics is expected to experience exponential growth. Elon Musk is betting on photovoltaic manufacturing to pave the way for orbital computing power and AI power supply. Leading Chinese photovoltaic equipment manufacturers possess strong capabilities in efficient iteration and rapid response, making it likely they will join the supply chains of Tesla, SpaceX, and other related equipment providers, securing substantial orders and opening up new growth opportunities. Additionally, space photovoltaic equipment may exhibit obvious inflationary effects, with the value potentially achieving a leapfrog increase. It is highly recommended to focus on leading manufacturers in all segments of photovoltaic equipment that have technological, product, and market share advantages.

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Electricity & New Energy | Space Photovoltaics as a Seller of Shovels, Expected to Achieve Value Leap

The demand for space photovoltaics is poised for exponential growth. Elon Musk’s investments in photovoltaic manufacturing are laying the groundwork for orbital computing power and AI power supply. Leading Chinese photovoltaic equipment manufacturers have strong capabilities in efficient iteration and rapid response, making it likely they will join the supply chains of Tesla, SpaceX, and other related equipment providers, securing substantial orders and opening up new growth space. Moreover, space photovoltaic equipment may have significant inflationary effects, with its value potentially experiencing a leapfrog increase. It is recommended to focus on leading manufacturers across all segments of photovoltaic equipment with technological, product, and market share advantages.

▍ SpaceX Aiming for Orbital Computing Power, Space Photovoltaic Demand Growth May Surpass Expectations

SpaceX is leading the development of commercial spaceflight, accelerating the construction of Starlink and satellite upgrades, and has applied to deploy millions of satellites, officially entering the space data center market. Space photovoltaics are currently the only energy source for satellites and orbital computing power, and their demand growth rate and market space are expected to see exponential increases. Our estimates suggest that, under conservative scenarios, by 2030, global demand for space photovoltaics and market size could reach 1GW and over 80 billion yuan respectively; under optimistic scenarios, demand could reach 70GW and nearly 3 trillion yuan. We anticipate that over the next five years, the market for space P-type HJT and perovskite batteries could grow by hundreds or even thousands of times.

▍ Elon Musk’s Investment in Photovoltaic Manufacturing, Leading PV Equipment Manufacturers Face Major Opportunities

Elon Musk revealed at the 2026 Davos Forum that Tesla and SpaceX plan to build upstream and downstream manufacturing capacities of 100GW each for photovoltaics in the coming years, based on ground power and space photovoltaic demand. We expect Tesla to primarily adopt TOPCon technology at this stage, while SpaceX may choose the P-type HJT technology route. Chinese photovoltaic equipment leaders, with their high-efficiency iteration and rapid response capabilities, are well-suited to meet Tesla and SpaceX’s high standards and strict requirements. Leading companies across all segments are likely to secure significant shares in their equipment supply chains, possibly even dominating the market, further expanding the vast growth space from ground to space.

▍ Growth Potential for Leading PV Equipment Manufacturers Opens, Equipment Value May Experience Leapfrog Increase

In addition to SpaceX’s clear plan to build its own photovoltaic capacity, other domestic and international manufacturers are also expected to accelerate capacity planning. As space computing power development accelerates and perovskite tandem cell technology matures, the demand for equipment upgrades will continue to grow, potentially opening a long-term market of hundreds of gigawatts per year. Furthermore, space photovoltaic technology significantly surpasses traditional photovoltaics in process complexity, customization, equipment standards, and the need for redundant configurations due to low production efficiency, which may lead to a notable increase in the value of related equipment. The market space for space photovoltaic equipment could also exceed expectations.

▍ Risk Factors:

Satellite launch schedules may fall short of expectations; the expansion of photovoltaic capacity by Tesla and SpaceX may not meet expectations; domestic equipment manufacturers’ order fulfillment may be uncertain; standards and certification processes may develop slower than anticipated; uncertainties in space computing power planning.

▍ Investment Strategy:

Elon Musk’s investment in photovoltaic manufacturing is paving the way for orbital computing power and AI power supply. Leading Chinese photovoltaic equipment manufacturers, with their strong capabilities in efficient iteration and rapid response, are likely to join the supply chains of Tesla, SpaceX, and other related companies, securing large orders and opening new growth opportunities. Additionally, space photovoltaic equipment may exhibit obvious inflationary effects, with its value potentially experiencing a leapfrog increase. It is recommended to focus on leading photovoltaic equipment manufacturers.

(Source: Cailian Press)