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Gold Old Cat

Long-term Warning: Historical Patterns of Silver's Sharp Declines Confirm Next Drop Could Reach the 40-50 Range

From a long-term perspective, the divergence between gold and silver trends is very clear. Even during significant declines, gold remains relatively resilient with an overall upward trend; whereas silver's volatility and declines have historically been much greater than gold.

First, let's clarify the precise points of several key historical crashes, as these are the core basis for judging future movements:

1. Historical Crashes (Precise Data)

• 1980 (Silver Thursday)
Peak: $50 → Trough: $4
Maximum Drop: 92%, directly "cut to the ankle," followed by a 20-year bear market.

• 2011 (QE Exit + Bubble Burst)
Peak: $50 → Trough: $14
Maximum Drop: 72%, four years of decline with weak rebounds.

• 2008 (Financial Crisis)
Peak: $21 → Trough: $8
Drop: 62%, liquidity crunch triggered a stampede.

• 2022 (Federal Reserve Aggressive Rate Hikes)
Peak: $26 → Trough: $17
Drop: 35%, typical pattern during a rate hike cycle.

• Previous Cycle (Early 2026)
Peak: $122 → Trough: $64
Drop: 47%, nearly halved, once again confirming that silver "rises quickly, falls even harder."

2. Patterns and Projections

Silver's historical rule: When gold drops 10%, silver drops 20%-30%; during deep gold corrections, silver crashes directly.
Gold has dual attributes of currency and safe haven, providing strong support; silver leans more toward industrial and speculative use, with a smaller market, high leverage, and easy to be driven down, with no bottom in sight when falling.

Based on historical decline ratios, this time silver is unlikely to experience a small correction. It is highly probable that it will directly fall to the $40-50 range, which is "cut to the ankle," fully consistent with historical patterns and with strong support levels.

3. Trading Strategy

From a long-term perspective, gold can be accumulated on dips as a core position; silver should be firmly held in a high position, never bottom-fished. Respect historical patterns, and strictly control extreme downside risks.

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Disclaimer: This article is for personal opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously.