Just now! Major tariff uncertainty! Trump faces "rare condemnation"!

Trump’s Tariff Policy Faces Major Uncertainty

On February 11th, Eastern Time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution with 219 votes in favor and 211 against, opposing President Trump’s tariffs on Canada. The resolution has been sent to the Senate and is expected to pass. Analysts believe that this rare rebuke in the Republican-controlled House represents a significant challenge to Trump and his party leadership.

At a critical moment, the prospects for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) also face considerable uncertainty. According to U.S. media reports, Trump is privately considering withdrawing from the USMCA, which would add more unpredictability to trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico.

U.S. House of Representatives Rejects Tariffs

On February 12th, according to CCTV News, on February 11th local time, the House of Representatives narrowly passed a resolution opposing Trump’s tariffs on Canada. This is a rare instance of the Republican-majority House publicly opposing the president’s policy.

The lawmakers approved a resolution with 219 votes in favor and 211 against, aiming to end Trump’s use of national emergency powers to impose punitive trade measures on Canadian goods. Six Republican representatives voted in favor, while one Democrat voted against.

The resolution will now be sent to the Senate, where it is likely to pass.

Previously, the Trump administration cited Canada’s failure to effectively curb cross-border drug trafficking, constituting an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, to justify imposing 35% tariffs on several Canadian goods not exempted under the USMCA.

Since then, Trump has repeatedly threatened further tariffs on Canada. On January 29th, he posted on his social platform “Real Social” that Canada’s “wrong, illegal, and long-standing” refusal to certify Gulfstream G500, G600, G700, and G800 business jets constituted unfair treatment of U.S. companies. In response, the U.S. will suspend certification of Bombardier Global series and all Canadian-made aircraft until Gulfstream aircraft are fully certified.

He warned that if the issue is not immediately resolved, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all Canadian aircraft sold in the U.S.

On January 24th, Trump also threatened via social media that if Canada “reached an agreement” with relevant countries, a 100% tariff would be imposed on Canadian goods entering the U.S.

Trump Considering Withdrawal

According to Bloomberg, Trump is reportedly privately evaluating the possibility of withdrawing from the USMCA through consultations with advisors. This development injects significant uncertainty into the ongoing renegotiations among the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, which are at a critical stage, casting a shadow over the agreement covering approximately $2 trillion in trade and services.

CCTV News reports that Trump previously stated that the USMCA would either expire or be replaced by a new agreement with Mexico and Canada. He also claimed that Mexico and Canada have been taking advantage of the U.S., and that tariffs bring wealth to America.

Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Trump has asked aides why he shouldn’t withdraw from the agreement, though he has not yet given a clear signal to do so.

White House officials responded that Trump is the ultimate decision-maker and remains committed to securing better deals for Americans. Discussions about potential actions are purely speculative until Trump makes an official announcement.

Analysts note that any move to withdraw would undermine one of the world’s largest trade relationships. Even the threat of withdrawal can unsettle investors and world leaders. If the agreement collapses, it could lead to the re-establishment of tariffs, increase inflation pressures, and potentially reverse North America’s 30-year effort to integrate supply chains, with economic repercussions that could impact upcoming midterm elections, posing a tougher challenge for the Republican Party. Following this news, oil prices surged over 2% intraday.

The USMCA is currently facing a mandatory review scheduled for July 1st. Originally considered routine, this process has become a contentious negotiation. If the three countries agree to renew, the agreement will remain in effect for another 16 years; if not, a 10-year review mechanism will be triggered, lasting until 2036. Any country can notify withdrawal six months in advance.

An official from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, stated that if an agreement incorporating industry stakeholder input can be reached, Greer would recommend renewing the deal. Potential areas of focus include strengthening rules of origin for key industrial products, deepening cooperation on critical minerals, enhancing worker protections, and anti-dumping measures.

Reports indicate that Trump has pressed Ottawa and Mexico City to make more concessions outside of trade issues, applying pressure to resolve non-trade matters such as immigration, drug trafficking, and defense. Trump has publicly expressed a desire for Canada and Mexico to develop well, but also bluntly stated, “We don’t need their products,” hinting at a preference for bilateral negotiations.