⚓ XRP OUTSHINES BITCOIN IN INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS AS ON-CHAIN BOTTOM SIGNAL FLASES

XRP is carving out a unique path in the current February 2026 market, flashing a historical bottom signal that hasn’t been seen in nearly two years. As of February 12, 2026, the asset’s spot price has dipped below its realized price the average cost basis of all circulating coins echoing the pre-rebound setups of 2022 and 2024. While whale cohorts have offloaded approximately 350 million XRP ($483 million) in a wave of recent panic selling, institutional investors are moving in the opposite direction. According to CoinShares, XRP recorded $63.1 million in weekly inflows, outperforming Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana combined. This institutional decoupling suggests that while retail sentiment remains fragile, professional capital is aggressively positioning for a value-driven reversal.

The Realized Price Signal: A Technical Value Zone

XRP has entered a “loss-making phase” for the aggregate market, which historically marks the beginning of a long-term bottom formation.

• The 2022 Echo: This is the first time since July 2024 that the spot price has fallen below the realized price. A similar setup in May 2022 led to a prolonged accumulation phase that eventually birthed a major rally. If history repeats, XRP is currently in a “deep value” zone where the risk-to-reward ratio begins to favor long-term bulls.
• Capitulation Floor: The drop below the cost basis of the average holder often triggers the final stage of a shakeout, where “weak hands” exit and institutional “strong hands” begin to absorb the remaining supply.

Institutional Decoupling: XRP vs. The Market

While the broader crypto market has seen capital flight, XRP is emerging as a preferred asset for institutional managers.

• Outperforming the Giants: In the week ending February 6, XRP’s $63.1 million in inflows stood in stark contrast to the net outflows seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• YTD Strength: Year-to-date institutional inflows for XRP now total $109 million. This divergence suggests that professional investors view XRP’s utility in cross-border payments as a defensive hedge against the broader market’s volatility.

Technical Roadmap: Reclaiming $1.52 for a $2.00 Push

XRP is currently holding just above the $1.37 support level, with a semi-bullish outlook emerging from the institutional support.

• The Pivot Point: The immediate objective for bulls is to reclaim $1.52 as a support floor. Reclaiming this level would likely shift market psychology from “fear” to “recovery,” potentially sparking a run toward $1.77.
• The Psychological Target: If bullish momentum sustains, XRP is positioned to test the $2.00 threshold.
• Downside Floor: Investors must watch the $1.37 support closely. A decisive break below this mark would invalidate the bottom thesis and expose XRP to a deeper slide toward $1.26 or even $1.12.

Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of XRP outperforming Bitcoin in institutional flows and the “realized price” bottom signal are based on technical analysis and third-party data as of February 12, 2026. On-chain metrics like realized price are historical indicators and do not guarantee future price performance. Whale selling of $483 million represents a significant near-term risk to price stability. XRP remains a high-risk asset subject to extreme volatility; the 2022 historical comparison suggests that bottoms can be prolonged and may involve extended consolidation rather than an immediate V-shaped recovery. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in digital assets.

Will the $63M institutional inflow be enough to ignite a V-shaped recovery, or are the whales right to sell into this realized price reset?