📉 THE $75 MAKE-OR-BREAK: CAN SOLANA SURVIVE SPECULATIVE OVERLOAD AMID A 10% PULLBACK?

Solana (SOL) has entered a critical corrective phase, having shed nearly 10% of its value since February 8, 2026. As of February 12, 2026, the asset is trading near the $75 support zone a level that has become the “last line of defense” for recent buyers. Technical analysis reveals a hidden bearish divergence on the 12-hour chart, while on-chain data shows a sharp reversal in exchange flows, flipping from net outflows to over 245,000 SOL in net inflows. With short-term, speculative traders now holding a larger share of the supply, Solana faces a high-stakes test: if $75 fails to hold, the path opens for a deeper decline toward the $66 and $59 support regions.

Technical Triggers: Hidden Divergence and Exchange Inflows**

The current pullback was preceded by several warning signals that indicated a loss of bullish momentum.

• Hidden Bearish Divergence: Between February 6 and 8, Solana’s price formed a lower high near $88 while the RSI made a higher high. This divergence suggested that buying strength was exhausting beneath the surface, setting the stage for the subsequent 10% drop.
• Exchange Flow Reversal: In a single day, Solana’s exchange net position change flipped from significant outflows (-538k SOL) to net inflows (+245k SOL). This surge in tokens moving onto exchanges typically indicates an increase in immediate sell-side pressure.

The Speculative Shift: Short-Term Traders Take Control**

On-chain data confirms that the current “dip-buying” activity is being led by reactive, short-term participants rather than long-term accumulators.

• Rising Short-Term Supply: The share of supply held by the one-day-to-one-week cohort has risen from 5.39% to 6.81%. Historically, this group is quick to exit their positions if losses deepen, making current support levels more fragile.
• The Capitulation Zone: Short-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) remains near -0.76, placing many recent buyers firmly in the “capitulation” zone. While they are holding for now to avoid realizing losses, their lack of long-term conviction means they are unlikely to provide a strong floor if the $75 level is breached.

The Path Ahead: Mapping the Support Floors**

Solana is currently navigating a narrow range where its price structure is being held up by psychological support.

• The $75 Demand Zone: This level represents a key psychological barrier and a possible cost area for recent buyers. If $75 holds, SOL may enter a consolidation phase.
• The Breakdown Targets: A decisive 12-hour close below $75 would likely trigger a cascade of panic selling from underwater speculative holders. This would open the downside toward the $66 and $59 Fibonacci support zones.
• Recovery Hurdles: To restore bullish momentum, Solana must first reclaim $89. Only a move above the $106 threshold would signal a meaningful improvement in the broader market structure.

Essential Financial Disclaimer**

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Solana (SOL) price projections and on-chain metrics like the $75 support level are based on technical analysis and third-party data as of February 12, 2026. Hidden bearish divergences and other technical patterns are probabilistic and do not guarantee future performance. Solana remains an extremely volatile asset; the 10% decline since February 8 highlights the potential for significant capital loss. On-chain signals like short-term holder supply and exchange inflows are subject to rapid shifts. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Solana or digital assets.

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Do you think the $75 support is the “buy of the week,” or is the 245k SOL exchange inflow a sign that sub-$60 is coming?