Japan's duty-free sales in January cool down, department stores face tourism recovery test

At the beginning of 2026, unfavorable news emerged from Japan’s retail market. According to Jintou Data, major department stores nationwide experienced a collective decline in duty-free sales in January, reflecting the complex situation facing Japan’s inbound tourism market. Takashimaya’s duty-free sales fell by 19% month-over-month, while Daimaru and Matsuzakaya under J Front Retailing saw declines of approximately 17%. Meanwhile, overall sales growth was only 0.7%, indicating weak momentum. Behind this performance, there is an underlying concern within Japan’s duty-free retail industry about tourists’ willingness to spend.

Duty-Free Sales Under Pressure: Structural Adjustments in the Tourism Market

The decline in Japan’s duty-free sales is not an isolated phenomenon. Currently, Japan is undergoing a deep restructuring of its tourism market. Although the number of inbound tourists is steadily increasing, there are new changes in per capita spending and consumption patterns. The squeeze on duty-free sales in department store districts reflects a shift in tourist spending from traditional shopping to experiences, dining, and accommodation. Small regional towns and non-shopping attractions are gradually becoming new choices for inbound visitors.

Japan’s 2030 Vision: From Scale Expansion to Quality Enhancement

To address the current situation, the Japanese government has set ambitious tourism development goals for 2030. In terms of visitor numbers, Japan plans to attract 60 million inbound tourists, a significant increase from current levels. More importantly, the focus is on revenue growth: aiming to achieve a total tourism income of 15 trillion yen and increase per foreign visitor expenditure by 9% to 250,000 yen. These figures reflect a shift from simply increasing visitor volume to enhancing customer value.

Balanced Development and Over-Tourism Control: New Era of Tourism Governance

The efforts of the government and the tourism industry have shifted from “whether to attract tourists” to “how to manage tourism scientifically.” On one hand, officials have doubled the total overnight stays in regional areas to over 130 million, promoting more balanced distribution of tourism income and easing pressure on popular cities. On the other hand, Japan is taking a serious stance on “over-tourism,” employing measures such as flow control, dispersal, and quality improvement to protect residents’ quality of life and cultural heritage.

From the fluctuations in Japan’s duty-free sales data, it is evident that this mature tourism market is undergoing a deep transformation. The government and businesses need to find a new balance between tourism scale and quality, making inbound tourism a sustainable growth engine.