First Capital Futures: Long and short funds battle, Lithium Carbonate 2605 contract surged over 3% in the early trading session

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-12T05:24:19+00:00

Today, the main futures contract for lithium carbonate opened higher and quickly rose, with the price breaking through 152,000 yuan/ton. In terms of costs, overseas lithium mine prices have fallen, supply-side resumption expectations have been delayed, pre-holiday stockpiling has ended, and demand support is weak. The new energy market retail sales have increased year-on-year, but inventories have also risen, resulting in both supply and demand being weak. In the short term, the contract may remain volatile.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-12 05:24:19

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Today’s early trading session, the main contract for lithium carbonate, opened at 150,000 yuan per ton, up over 4%, and quickly rose above 152,000 yuan per ton, with an intraday increase of over 5%.
On the cost side, overseas spodumene prices declined along with lithium carbonate prices, pushing down cost support. On the supply side, expectations for the resumption of spodumene mining have been delayed, and before the Spring Festival and during the holiday, lithium salt factories may undergo maintenance, narrowing supply expectations.
Chile’s exports of lithium carbonate to China increased month-on-month, and the resumption of lithium mining in Brazil has somewhat alleviated production cuts. Previously, downstream inventory was sufficient, and with the Spring Festival approaching, stockpiling has mostly ended, leading to a slowdown in destocking, making it difficult for demand to provide price support.
In terms of terminal news, from February 1-8, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide reached 119,000 units, a 42% increase year-on-year for the same period last year, and a 41% increase compared to the previous month’s same period. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative retail sales have reached 715,000 units, down 14% year-on-year.
On the inventory side, domestic lithium salt factory inventories in January were about 29,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous month, up 24.69% month-on-month and up 8.01% year-on-year.
Fundamentally, with both supply and demand weak, inventory destocking is slowing, and there are no other upward drivers before the festival. The main contract is likely to fluctuate sideways, and it may be prudent to consider closing positions to avoid risk during the holiday. (First Capital Futures)

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