Is It Too Late To Consider Hudbay Minerals (TSX:HBM) After Its 1-Year 176.9% Rally?

Simply Wall St

Thu, February 12, 2026 at 2:10 PM GMT+9 5 min read

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If you are wondering whether Hudbay Minerals is still good value after a strong run, this article walks through what the current price might be implying about the company.

The stock last closed at C$35.86, with reported returns of 2.6% over 7 days, 14.5% over 30 days, 29.9% year to date and 176.9% over 1 year, plus very large gains over 3 and 5 years.

Recent coverage of Hudbay Minerals has focused on its position in the materials sector and how investors are reacting to the company at current copper and precious metals prices. This context helps explain why expectations and risk perceptions around the stock have been shifting.

On our checklist of six valuation tests, Hudbay Minerals scores 3. This indicates it screens as undervalued on half of those metrics. You can see the breakdown in its valuation score of 3/6. Next we will look at the usual valuation approaches before finishing with a way to assess value that ties the numbers back to the broader investment story.

Hudbay Minerals delivered 176.9% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry.

Approach 1: Hudbay Minerals Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars to estimate what the entire business might be worth right now.

For Hudbay Minerals, the model used here is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at $341.3 million. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for several years, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further out. For example, forecast free cash flow for 2028 is $285.5 million, and the model includes a full set of yearly projections out to 2035, all expressed in $ and then discounted back to today using the chosen assumptions.

Adding these discounted cash flows together gives an estimated intrinsic value of $12.75 per share. Compared with the recent share price of C$35.86, the DCF output suggests Hudbay Minerals is 181.3% overvalued on this model.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Hudbay Minerals may be overvalued by 181.3%. Discover 5 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

HBM Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Hudbay Minerals.

Story Continues  

Approach 2: Hudbay Minerals Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to see what investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. Higher P/E ratios often reflect higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk, while lower P/E ratios can suggest more modest expectations or higher perceived risk.

Hudbay Minerals is trading on a P/E of 22.67x. That sits below the Metals and Mining industry average P/E of 24.90x and below the peer group average of 36.77x, which indicates the market is valuing Hudbay’s earnings more cautiously than those benchmarks.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Hudbay Minerals is 23.05x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E might be for the company, based on factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and key risks. Compared with a simple industry or peer comparison, the Fair Ratio is designed to be more tailored to Hudbay’s specific characteristics rather than treating all miners as identical.

With the current P/E of 22.67x sitting just below the Fair Ratio of 23.05x, the stock appears roughly in line with what this framework suggests.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

TSX:HBM P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Hudbay Minerals Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about Hudbay Minerals, such as whether you lean closer to a higher fair value view of about CA$41.92 or a lower fair value view of about CA$24.98. You can link that story to explicit forecasts for revenue, earnings, margins and a chosen P/E, and then compare your resulting Fair Value with today’s share price, with the platform automatically updating your Narrative when fresh news or results arrive so you can quickly see whether your story and valuation still hold up.

For Hudbay Minerals however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Hudbay Minerals Narratives:

🐂 Hudbay Minerals Bull Case

Fair value: about C$36.19 per share

Implied mispricing vs last close: roughly 0.9% undervalued using the narrative fair value

Revenue growth assumption: about 13.87% a year

Frames Hudbay as a copper growth story tied to Copper World and expanding North American production, with analysts using higher revenue growth, margins and a richer future P/E in their fair value work.

Highlights operational execution, cost control and a relatively stronger balance sheet, which together support the case that the business can support ongoing project spending while keeping leverage in check.

Still flags meaningful project, geographic, cost and regulatory risks that could challenge those forecasts, so the thesis hinges on Hudbay delivering large projects close to current expectations.

🐻 Hudbay Minerals Bear Case

Fair value: about C$24.98 per share

Implied mispricing vs last close: roughly 43.5% overvalued using the narrative fair value

Revenue growth assumption: about 7.63% a year

Focuses on concentration of future capital and execution risk in Copper World and other large projects, where delays, higher costs or weaker copper demand could weigh on future cash flows.

Assumes lower valuation multiples than the wider Canadian metals and mining group, with margins easing from current levels even as earnings and revenue continue to grow.

Acknowledges that strong liquidity, reaffirmed cost guidance and ongoing growth investment could offset some of the risks if operations and projects track current guidance more closely than the bear case assumes.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Hudbay Minerals? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

TSX:HBM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include HBM.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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