People's Daily Online Economic Hotspot Quick Commentary: Can Space Photovoltaics Become a New Blue Ocean?

Recently, news that Elon Musk’s team is exploring China’s photovoltaic supply chain has garnered attention. Previously, Musk proposed a plan to deploy 100 gigawatts of solar AI satellite energy networks in space annually, which accounts for about one-sixth of the world’s new photovoltaic installations, making the concept of “space photovoltaics” highly popular.

Is space photovoltaics feasible? Can China’s photovoltaic industry chain seize opportunities in this blue ocean?

First, let’s understand what space photovoltaics are. This is a technology that involves installing photovoltaic modules on spacecraft or satellites to convert solar energy into electrical power to supply the spacecraft. The long-term goal is to achieve “space power generation—wireless transmission via microwaves or lasers—and ground reception.” Its advantages include high solar irradiance in space, no impact from day-night cycles or weather, and energy density reaching 7 to 10 times that of ground systems.

The combination of photovoltaics and space has a long history. In 1958, solar cells were used for the first time on satellites; a few decades later, China’s second artificial satellite also used solar cells.

Why has market attention on space photovoltaics continued to rise in recent years? On one hand, reusable rocket technology has lowered launch costs, and global commercial space development is accelerating, gradually turning the space economy into reality. On the other hand, the rapid development of data centers and other infrastructure has increased the comprehensive demand for power supply and cooling, which ground infrastructure may struggle to keep up with, while photovoltaic power generation efficiency in space far exceeds that on Earth.

It should be said that space photovoltaics have enormous long-term potential, but currently they are still in the exploration and validation stage. The industrialization process is affected by technological development, economic factors, and other issues, and large-scale development will still take some time. For example, gallium arsenide cells have high conversion efficiency, excellent radiation resistance, and high reliability, but are costly; perovskite cells have advantages such as high flexibility and low cost, but their reliability remains to be verified.

More critically, from an economic perspective: according to industry estimates, the current cost per kilowatt-hour for space photovoltaics is about $2–$3, while ground-based photovoltaics have reduced costs to $0.03–$0.05 per kWh, with a difference of up to a hundred times. If future launch costs cannot be reduced to less than one-tenth of current levels, and photovoltaic efficiency cannot be doubled, space photovoltaics will struggle to be economically viable.

Faced with potential opportunities, China’s photovoltaic industry chain has multiple advantages: in terms of technological R&D, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, research institutions broke the NREL efficiency record 27 times, increasing the global share to 55%, doubling compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan; in manufacturing capacity, during the 14th Five-Year Plan, photovoltaic cell production is 5.5 times that of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with over 90% of global capacity by 2025; in cost advantages, over the past decade, China has helped reduce the average levelized cost of solar power projects worldwide by 80%.

Regarding space photovoltaics, Chinese photovoltaic companies are actively advancing frontier layouts. Trina Solar’s National Key Laboratory of Photovoltaic Science and Technology has set a world record for large-area perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem modules of 3.1 square meters; Longi Green Energy has established a future energy space laboratory; Jinko Solar and Jintai Technology are jointly promoting the R&D and industrialization of perovskite tandem battery technology. Overall, space photovoltaics remain a marathon that requires time and patience. With dreams and bold ideas, combined with practical steps and successful execution—aiming to develop more competitive high-efficiency photovoltaic products—and with breakthroughs in commercial space transportation and decreasing launch costs in the future, this trillion-yuan blue ocean of space photovoltaics may not be too far away.

(Source: People’s Daily)