Why Analysts See Heineken (ENXTAM:HEIA) Story Shifting As Price Targets Converge Around Fair Value

Simply Wall St

Thu, February 12, 2026 at 2:08 PM GMT+9 4 min read

In this article:

HEINY

+4.09%

HINKF

+10.13%

DB

-0.82%

Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St’s easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge.

Heineken’s internal fair value estimate has been adjusted from €84.66 to €85.16, a small move that still sits within the tight range of recent analyst price targets. This tweak reflects a slightly higher discount rate of 5.35% and updated revenue growth assumptions of 3.73%, set against a research backdrop where some analysts lean toward €86 targets while others sit closer to the low to mid €70s. Read on to see how you can keep track of these shifting targets and the story they tell about Heineken’s evolving narrative.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Heineken.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

On the constructive side, Deutsche Bank has been one of the more upbeat voices, with analyst Mitch Collett setting a €86 price target. This sits at the high end of the recent range and aligns closely with the internal fair value estimate around €85.

Morgan Stanley also lifted its target to €73.50 from €70.50 and kept an Equal Weight stance. This signals recognition of Heineken's execution and earnings power, even if they view the current share price as roughly fair.

Across these more positive views, analysts are effectively giving Heineken credit for its ability to execute, manage costs and keep growth moving. They are still flagging that a lot of the upside may already be reflected in current valuations.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

On the cautious side, several firms have pulled back on their stance, with RBC Capital shifting to Sector Perform from Outperform and cutting its target to €76 from €88. This signals less confidence that the previous upside case still holds.

BNP Paribas has also moved to Neutral from Outperform with a €73 target, which places their view closer to the mid €70s cluster and below the most optimistic targets around €86.

Oddo BHF has become more bearish as well, downgrading Heineken. This reinforces the idea that some analysts see near term risks and valuation constraints, even if they still acknowledge Heineken's underlying execution and brand strength.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

ENXTAM:HEIA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

What’s in the News

Heineken N.V. announced that CEO Dolf van den Brink plans to step down from his role on May 31, 2026, after almost six years as CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board and more than 28 years with the company.

The Supervisory Board is beginning a search process for a new CEO, so you can expect ongoing updates on leadership succession over the next two years.

After leaving the CEO position, Dolf van den Brink has agreed to remain available in an advisory capacity for eight months from June 1, 2026, which is intended to support continuity during the leadership transition.

 






La historia continúa  

How This Changes the Fair Value For Heineken

The fair value estimate has risen slightly from €84.66 to €85.16, reflecting modestly updated inputs in the model.

The discount rate has moved up from 5.17% to 5.35%, implying a slightly higher required return being applied to Heineken's future cash flows.

The revenue growth assumption has increased from 3.53% to 3.73%, a small upward adjustment to the expected top line expansion used in the valuation work.

The net profit margin assumption has edged up from 8.92% to 8.99%, pointing to a marginally stronger profitability profile in the updated model.

The future P/E has been trimmed slightly from 18.96x to 18.91x, indicating a very small reduction in the valuation multiple assumed for Heineken's earnings.

🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect Heineken’s story with the numbers by linking a clear thesis, explicit forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, and a fair value in one place. Hosted on the Community page used by millions of investors, Narratives help you compare Fair Value to the current price so you can decide whether to buy or sell, and they automatically refresh when fresh news, earnings or rating changes come through.

If you want the full story behind the latest valuation tweaks for Heineken, it is worth reading the original narrative that ties everything together.

How premiumisation, low and no alcohol products, and expansion in emerging markets connect to assumptions for revenue, margins and earnings in the coming years.

Which risks around currencies, mature market volumes and cost pressures could challenge the thesis if conditions turn out differently from current expectations.

What analyst assumptions on the 2028 earnings, profit margins, revenue of €32.8b and a 19.1x P/E imply for fair value compared to today's share price of €66.64.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Heineken here: Analysts adjust Heineken price targets as valuation and growth forecasts edge lower, and use it as your reference point as fresh research and news come through on the stock. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include HEIA.AS.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

Condiciones y Política de privacidad

Privacy Dashboard

More Info