Zheshang Strategy: Price-increasing varieties show divergence; securities firms experience high growth in prosperity

Key Points

In the upstream cyclical commodities, there has been some differentiation among early-stage price-increasing varieties. From weekly month-on-month data, only gold prices among non-ferrous metals have risen, while silver and other industrial metals have declined to varying degrees. Prices of specific segments such as oil and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and others have also pulled back. Double焦 prices have rebounded. In TMT, the semiconductor sales cycle remains upward, and industry prosperity persists. In downstream consumer goods, the bulk price of Feitian Moutai has increased month-on-month, supporting a strong performance in the liquor sector. In finance and real estate, trading volumes on both markets have expanded, margin financing balances remain high, indicating strong growth in brokerages.

Summary of Content

1. Upstream Cyclical

1. Non-ferrous metals: Prices have diverged; COMEX gold prices have increased week-on-week. 2) Coal: Coal mining and washing PPI have recovered year-on-year growth; double焦 prices have rebounded. 3) Oil and petrochemicals: PPI for oil and natural gas extraction has declined, with crude oil prices under pressure.

2. Midstream Cyclical

1. Steel: Prices of iron ore and rebar have increased week-on-week. 2) Basic chemicals: Major product prices have declined. 3) Construction materials: Industry prosperity remains relatively low. 4) Transportation: Shipping activity has declined, and express delivery growth has slowed.

3. Midstream Manufacturing

1. Light industry manufacturing: Building materials and home furnishing prosperity has declined; white cardboard prices are low. 2) Automotive: PPI growth rate for the auto manufacturing industry remains low. 3) Machinery equipment: Excavator production and sales growth have marginally improved. 4) Power equipment: Wind power industry prosperity has significantly increased, while lithium batteries have declined.

4. TMT

1. Electronics: Semiconductor sales cycle is upward. 2) Computing: Total profit growth in the software industry is rising year-on-year. 3) Telecommunications: Total telecom business volume growth remains low and volatile. 4) Media: Movie box office revenue over the past 12 months has shown a marginal decline in year-on-year growth.

5. Downstream Consumer

1. Food and beverages: The bulk price of Feitian Moutai has increased month-on-month. 2) Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: The number of Chinese breeding sows has decreased year-on-year. 3) Household appliances: December exports of home appliances and kitchen appliances further declined. 4) Retail and social services: December retail sales growth slowed. 5) Beauty and personal care: Cumulative sales of cosmetics, perfumes, and beauty tools over the past 12 months have declined year-on-year. 6) Pharmaceuticals and biotech: Marginal decline in Chinese medicine CPI; innovative drug industry prosperity is rising.

6. Financial and Real Estate

1. Real estate: Sales area of commercial housing and total investment in real estate development have declined year-on-year. 2) Securities: Trading volumes on both markets have expanded; margin financing balances remain high. 3) Insurance: Premium income growth remains low and volatile.

7. Risk Warnings

Economic recovery is below expectations; Federal Reserve rate cuts are slower than expected; geopolitical conflicts intensify.

(Source: Zheshang Securities)