$60,000 becomes the critical point for bulls and bears: Key turning point in the derivatives market from Bitcoin futures

As of February 12, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $67,425.1, down -0.94% in the past 24 hours, with a total decline of -11.59% over the past 7 days. As Bitcoin repeatedly fails to break the $70,000 barrier, the futures market’s position structure is quietly shifting: bearish forces are gathering, with the next target set on the $60,000 round level.

According to Gate market data and derivatives tracking from multiple data agencies, there are clear signs of “longs decreasing” in the Bitcoin futures market recently. This is not merely short-term hedging but a strategic deployment with a defined direction. This article will analyze the current bearish trend behind these signals from three perspectives: Bitcoin futures data, liquidation heatmaps, and technical chart structures, and will offer feasible responses for Gate users.

Derivatives Data Decoding: Why Are Bears Acting Now?

Changes in Futures Position Structure

Although open interest in Bitcoin futures remained high in early February, the funding rates across major exchanges have shifted from positive to neutral, with some periods even turning negative, indicating that market sentiment has shifted from “buying on dips” to “shorting on rebounds.”

This structural change in derivatives data often precedes trend shifts in spot prices. When funding rates stay low or negative for extended periods, it suggests leveraged longs are exiting, while shorts are gradually building positions.

Liquidation Heatmap Reveals Liquidity Gaps

According to the liquidation heatmap data, there is a significant liquidity vacuum between $66,000 and $60,500. This indicates that the order book in this range is relatively sparse. Once the price breaks below key support levels, the downward move could accelerate, directly filling the liquidity gap.

Notably, over $350 million in leveraged long positions are concentrated near $60,500. These positions have become a key liquidity target for bears. The logic of derivatives markets is that prices tend to move toward areas of highest liquidity. When many stop-loss orders cluster in the same zone, a “magnetic effect” naturally forms.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s Trading Structure Weakening

Repeated Attempts at $70,000 Fail, Forming a “Lower High”

The 1-hour chart shows that Bitcoin again faces strong selling pressure around $69,800, forming a typical “false breakout, true pullback” pattern. This not only traps chasing buyers but also further boosts bearish confidence.

Bitcoin has now broken below the 50- and 100-period exponential moving averages (EMA), with short- and medium-term moving averages in a bearish alignment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating weak rebound momentum and a shift in trading sentiment from bullish to bearish.

Key Support Levels Under Pressure

Bitcoin is currently testing the $66,000 round level. If this support fails, the next technical support zones are at $63,400 to $64,600. This range has served as a bullish defense since January lows. A further breakdown could quickly shift market consensus toward $60,000.

Some analysts believe Bitcoin’s recent trend is within a descending channel, with the lower boundary around $61,000. This aligns closely with the liquidity gap in futures markets, creating a dual resonance between technical and derivatives signals.

Gate’s Perspective: Neutral Interpretation

Bitcoin Price Forecast (2026–2031)

Based on Gate’s integrated market prediction model, the average price of Bitcoin in 2026 is expected to be $69,065, with a range between $61,468 and $98,763. The current price of $67,425.1 remains within the lower half of this annual forecast, still within a reasonable fluctuation range.

Looking ahead to 2027, the model estimates an average price of $83,914, roughly +21.00% above current levels. Long-term, the 2031 forecast is $148,721, representing a potential return of +86.00%.

Insights from Derivatives Data: Bears Are Not Fully in Control

Although futures data indicates increasing bearish momentum, the market has never been dominated by a single side. Gate users should note the following three points:

$60,000 Remains a Strong Psychological Support

1. Since 2025, Bitcoin has only briefly touched $59,800 before bouncing back. This level has become a yearly low. If retested, it could attract long-term capital to enter positions.

Dual Risks in Derivatives Markets

1. Currently, short positions are overly concentrated. If Bitcoin unexpectedly recovers above $68,000, it could trigger a short squeeze, leading to a “short covering” rally. Derivatives data should not be interpreted in a one-sided manner.

Spot Buying Still Shows Resilience

1. Despite bearish sentiment in futures, spot ETFs and institutional custody addresses continue to accumulate. Divergence between derivatives and spot markets often signals an impending trend shift.

Trading Recommendations for Gate Users

Given the current derivatives signals pointing to bearish pressure and the $60,000 level being tested, Gate suggests the following strategies:

• Short-term traders: Watch the $66,000 and $64,000 support levels. If four consecutive hours of candles close below these, reduce long exposure; if price recovers above $68,500, reassess the short thesis.
• Medium- to long-term investors: Do not overreact to short-term derivatives fluctuations. Although the halving effect has been priced in, on-chain activity and adoption continue to grow steadily. Consider using Gate’s dollar-cost averaging feature to smooth entry points.
• Derivatives traders: Set strict stop-losses to avoid heavy bets in liquidity vacuum zones. Monitor funding rates; if they remain negative, short-term rebound trades may still be advantageous.

Conclusion

Futures data does not directly determine price but reflects the intentions of the most influential market participants—leverage traders. Currently, bearish forces are leveraging technical weakness and liquidity gaps to push the price toward the $60,000 level. However, the true trend will not be dictated by a single data point but by the final consensus after ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Gate will continue to monitor Bitcoin futures and derivatives data, providing users with timely and objective market insights. Regardless of market direction, rationality and discipline remain the best guides.