Strategic transformation boosts BERA, Berachain surges 150%: Ecosystem narrative restructuring drives strong price recovery

On February 12, 2026, Gate market data shows that Berachain’s native token BERA continues its strong performance, reaching a 24-hour high of $1.50. The current price is $0.9107, representing an 83.17% increase over the past 24 hours. This surge began on the previous trading day, with BERA experiencing a remarkable 150% single-day increase driven by both news and technical factors, marking the largest rebound since Q4 2025.

This rally is not merely a market sentiment rebound but also the first substantial demonstration of value since the Berachain Foundation launched its business strategy transformation for Bera in January 2026. Gate Research Institute has analyzed on-chain data and project developments to identify the core drivers behind BERA’s current rise and provides a medium- to long-term price observation framework.

Price Performance Review: Short-term Pullback, Volume Surge, and Diminishing Risk Aversion

As of February 12, the main trading indicators for BERA are as follows:

From a technical perspective, this rally exhibits three typical reversal features:

First, volume breakout. The 24-hour trading volume reached $21,490,000, more than tripling the previous day, indicating a clear willingness of new funds to enter.

Second, clearing high-leverage short positions. According to on-chain options data, when BERA broke through key resistance levels at $0.65 and $0.82, large-scale short liquidations were triggered, forming a classic short squeeze pattern.

Third, the lifting of historical burdens. The previously concerning $25 million refund clause for Brevan Howard Nova Digital Fund expired on February 6, removing a significant overhang. Additionally, the market had already absorbed the circulating supply pressure of 107,480,000 BERA tokens. No panic selling was observed during the unlock week, providing a stable foundation for the rebound.

Bera Business Strategy: From TVL Narrative to Cash Flow Narrative

The core of Berachain’s strategic shift is moving away from a growth model heavily reliant on liquidity incentives toward supporting application-layer projects with real revenue-generating capabilities.

According to official announcements, Bera’s build-out will prioritize supporting three to five DeFi or infrastructure projects with clear business models and sustainable cash flows. This aims to establish demand scenarios beyond “staking mining,” alleviating the previous passive situation where TVL (Total Value Locked) and token prices experienced simultaneous declines.

In 2025, Berachain’s TVL dropped over 70% from its peak, and BERA’s price retraced more than 90% from its all-time high of $15.2. The market widely questioned whether the “high inflation incentives—short-term TVL boom—capital outflows after incentives weaken” model could withstand a bear market. This strategic shift directly addresses those concerns.

Gate analysts believe that shifting from “incentive-driven” to “product-driven” will help Berachain establish a healthier value capture mechanism in the next cycle. Although still in early stages, the market is willing to assign a premium to this “narrative shift,” indicating that investors are becoming weary of pure DeFi mining models and are revaluing Layer 1 assets with actual revenue potential.

Price Analysis and Forecast: Short-term Support at $0.91, Long-term Application Progress

Short-term Key Levels (February – March 2026)

The current BERA price of $0.9107 has broken above the 30-day moving average for the first time since December 2025. Immediate resistance is at $1.06 (the January 2026 high). A successful breakout could challenge $1.18. Support levels are observed around $0.78 to $0.82.

The 24-hour high of $1.50 was a pulse-like spike, not a stable trading zone. Without sustained volume, the likelihood of consolidation or correction increases. Gate market analysis reminds investors that although market sentiment is optimistic, the total circulating market cap of BERA at $455.7 million remains well above the current market cap of $97.95 million. There is still a 315% token unlock pressure ahead, requiring close attention to actual circulating supply changes.

Medium- to Long-term Price Forecast (2026–2031)

Based on Gate Research Institute’s modeling, assuming Berachain can successfully launch at least one to two revenue-generating top-tier applications within the next 6 to 12 months, BERA’s price has moderate upside potential. The forecasted range is as follows:

It is important to note that these projections assume Berachain can successfully execute its “revenue-based application” strategy. If progress is slower than expected, BERA could retest support levels around $0.48 or lower.

Conclusion: After the Rebound, What Is the Market Waiting For?

BERA’s recent rally is fundamentally a combination of “strategy transparency premium” and “diminishing risk aversion.” Through a clear narrative shift, Berachain has regained market attention amid a subdued environment.

However, moving from “rebound” to “recovery” still requires solving two core issues:

• Proven demand. Can Bera’s build-out deliver quantifiable revenue or user data before Q2 2026?
• Tokenomics sustainability. With a total supply of 500 million and an unlimited issuance model, how will incentives, unlock schedules, and secondary market support be balanced?

For investors focused on Layer 1 projects, Gate will continue providing the latest data and in-depth analysis of Berachain’s ecosystem development. Currently, BERA is listed on Gate’s spot trading platform. Users can log in via the Gate website or app to check real-time quotes and depth charts.